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05 Sep 2012 description
report Oxford Analytica

The intensive conflict of recent months in the Kivus region of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has given way to stalemate.

Amid a continuing dire humanitarian situation, alliances between various state and militia forces are shifting.

In a complex and unpredictable arena, one thing appears certain: the model of integrating militia groups into the Congolese army (FARDC) as a strategy for building peace in the region is discredited, given that its failure generated the current 'M23' rebellion.

24 Jul 2012 description
report Oxford Analytica

The United States on July 21 cut a small element of 2012 military financing support to Rwanda while boosting help to other regional armies. Washington cited its concerns over evidence of Rwandan support to Congolese Tutsi armed groups, especially the 'M23' group. M23 mutinied in April against the FARDC, the national army of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), into which it had been loosely integrated since 2009. Relations between Kinshasa and Kigali have improved significantly since mid-July, but the situation in eastern DRC remains highly fluid and unstable.

29 Jun 2011 description
report Oxford Analytica

The UN Security Council voted unanimously yesterday to extend the mandate of the UN Stabilisation Mission in the Congo (MONUSCO) until end-June 2012. MONUSCO's mandate is largely unchanged, despite pressure from the Congolese government for the mission to be wound down by the end of 2011. Instead, the Security Council tasked MONUSCO with supporting preparations for November elections, in addition to its responsibilities protecting civilians. Security remains a challenge, particularly in the east, where several of the largest armed groups are regrouping.

Impact

06 Apr 2011 description
report Oxford Analytica

April 6, 2011

SUBJECT: Aid and corruption in post-conflict states.

SIGNIFICANCE: Aid disbursements are a key element of post-conflict interventions, since promoting economic growth is considered integral to the consolidation of peace. However, aid can also increase corruption and imperil the goal of peace-building: strengthening state capacity to manage conflict peacefully. Aid that is delivered through the state may strengthen the state, but increase corruption; aid that is delivered around the state may protect against corruption, but weaken the state.

20 Oct 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

October 20, 2010

EVENT: Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) government troops may recently have committed rape and murder in North Kivu province, according to a UN envoy on October 14.

SIGNIFICANCE: More than 300 people were raped by three different militia groups just kilometres from a UN peace-keeping base in the same area during four days at the end of July and beginning of August. Women continue to suffer disproportionately in contemporary conflict.

20 Oct 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

October 20, 2010

EVENT: The African Union reported on October 16 that Central African countries were working to ensure that the Ugandan rebel group, the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA), is classified as a terrorist organisation.

SIGNIFICANCE: Displaced from northern Uganda, the LRA has for more than two years been a persistent threat to civilians in neighbouring Sudan, Democratic Republic of Congo and Central African Republic.

ANALYSIS: In December 2008, the Ugandan Army (UPDF) launched operation "Lightning Thunder" against the Lord's Resistance Army (LRA) in …

18 Aug 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

August 18, 2010

EVENT: The army reported today that three UN peacekeepers had been killed when suspected rebels infiltrated their base in the east.

SIGNIFICANCE: Continued insecurity in the eastern parts of the country poses a significant challenge for President Joseph Kabila.

17 May 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

May 17, 2010

EVENT: On May 15, a UN Security Council mission to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) linked the timing of the withdrawal of UN peacekeepers to progress on security sector reform.

SIGNIFICANCE: International donors -- most notably the EU -- have been working with the Congolese government since 2005 to reform the DRC's ill-disciplined and corrupt security sector. The impending withdrawal of UN peacekeepers, another key partner in such efforts, has highlighted the lack of commitment to reform by the government.

ANALYSIS: When the inter-state wars that tore the …

01 Apr 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

April 1, 2010

SUBJECT: The future of the UN Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC).

SIGNIFICANCE: President Joseph Kabila has called for the UN to depart, after eleven years in the country, which opens up opportunities for both his government and the international community. However, MONUC's withdrawal would bring significant political and economic risks.

ANALYSIS: At the end of February, President Joseph Kabila officially asked Under-Secretary General for Peace-keeping Operations Alain Le Roy for the UN peace-keeping mission (MONUC) to leave by mid-2011.

05 Mar 2010 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: Transitions from peace-keeping to peace building in post-conflict states.

SIGNIFICANCE: Traditionally, peace-keeping and peace building have been viewed as sequential post-conflict activities. However, in protracted conflicts, durable peace cannot be achieved unless longer-term peace building activities are built into the earlier stabilisation phase of interventions.

23 Jul 2009 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: Continued insecurity in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

SIGNIFICANCE: In the four months since the conclusion of the joint Congolese-Rwandan operation against the eastern DRC's largest remaining rebel group, the security situation has once again deteriorated throughout the provinces of North and South Kivu.

ANALYSIS: Following months of set-backs at the hands of dissident General Laurent Nkunda's National Congress for the Defence of the People (CNDP), President Joseph Kabila in mid-December 2008 reached an agreement with Kigali: in return for …

25 Feb 2009 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Rwandan troops face a February 28 deadline to withdraw from Congolese territory.

SIGNIFICANCE: President Joseph Kabila invited the Rwandan army into the country to conduct a joint offensive against Rwandan Hutu rebels based in the volatile east.

30 Dec 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: Negotiations for a ceasefire in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo are due to resume in Nairobi on January 7.

SIGNIFICANCE: The first round of talks in early December failed to break the deadlock between the government and the representatives of rebel General Laurent Nkunda. The conflict has regional dimensions, in particular drawing in Rwandan involvement.

ANALYSIS: The Nairobi conference is the latest in a series of diplomatic initiatives to restore peace to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC).

25 Nov 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The political and economic outlook for Southern Africa in 2009.

SIGNIFICANCE: Southern Africa faces heightened political and economic strains in the year ahead. The security outlook in Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo has deteriorated, and real democratic progress remains elusive.

29 May 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: The causes and impact of border tensions around Lake Albert.

SIGNIFICANCE: After several years in which the relations between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda defined the political outlook for the whole Great Lakes region, interactions between DRC and Uganda are now emerging as the key factor for wider peace and security.

ANALYSIS: Relations between Kinshasa and Kampala have been marked by mutual acrimony since Uganda's 1998 invasion and occupation of parts of eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In October 2003, joint accusations followed the …

10 Jan 2008 description
report Oxford Analytica

SUBJECT: Natural disaster preparedness in East Africa and the Great Lakes.

SIGNIFICANCE: Over the past 20 years, greater responsibility has been placed upon national governments for disaster planning, and mitigation, in their own territories.  However, recent disaster episodes in the region suggest that its governments are some way from meeting their obligations.

04 Sep 2007 description
report Oxford Analytica

EVENT: The Rwandan foreign minister visited Kinshasa on September 2 for talks on cross-border militancy.

SIGNIFICANCE: Following transitional elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), regional governments have turned their attention to the last remaining major security challenge in the Great Lakes: those militias which, based mainly in the eastern DRC, continue to launch raids into neighbouring countries.