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Cereal production during the upcoming harvest season in Southern Africa is expected to be below average, despite the heavy late rains, which benefitted the late planted crops. This is due to a late start of the rainy season, minimal to no rains during the critical planting season (December -January), high temperatures and the prevalence of Fall Armyworm (FAW).
In Eastern Africa, staple commodity prices generally followed seasonal trends in Uganda, Kenya, and Somalia, but atypical price trends were observed in Sudan, South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Tanzania (FEWS NET Price Watch, March 2018). Prices are expected to follow seasonal trends through June 2018, remaining below last year and five year USD prices due to a combination of currency depreciation, better production than 2017, and regional imports.
- White maize grain was as usual, the most regionally traded commodity between October and December 2017 because of increasing supply from the previous June-to-July, and ongoing November-to-January harvests (see Figure 1). Recurrent conflict-related trade disruptions from southern to northern markets in South Sudan encouraged alternative imports from Sudan in the north.
Estimaciones globales sobre la inseguridad alimentaria aguda en 2017
• Alrededor de 124 millones de personas en 51 países se enfrentan a una situación de Crisis de inseguridad alimentaria o peor (equivalente o superior a la fase 3 del IPC/CH) y requieren una acción humanitaria urgente para salvar vidas, proteger los medios de vida y reducir los niveles de hambre y desnutrición aguda.
Estimations mondiales de l’insécurité alimentaire aiguë en 2017
• Environ 124 millions de personnes vivant dans 51 pays sont en situation d’insécurité alimentaire de Crise ou pire (Phase 3 ou pire de l’IPC ou du CH ou équivalent) et requièrent une action humanitaire urgente afin de sauver des vies, protéger les moyens d’existence et réduire les déficits de consommation alimentaire et la malnutrition aiguë.
Acute food insecurity global estimates in 2017
• Around 124 million people in 51 countries face Crisis food insecurity or worse (equivalent of IPC/CH Phase 3 or above). They require urgent humanitarian action to save lives, protect livelihoods, and reduce hunger and malnutrition.
Maize grain as usual was the most traded commodity in the region followed by dry beans, rice and then sorghum. See Figure 1.
Staple commodity prices especially for maize are expected to remain above last year and five year average prices despite near average harvest in the region with spatial pockets of deficit within and between countries because carryover stocks are low, tightening supplies available for trade.
- Tanzania’s ban on maize grain exports to assure the country’s food security and to encourage value addition through exports of flour, would likely move regional cross-border trade to informal channels because of porous borders, and increase the maize export prices because of additional of costs of circumventing the ban.
Maize grain was the most informally traded commodity in Eastern Africa in the first quarter of 2017 accounting for 33 percent of total trade, but volumes traded in the region were lower when compared to 2013-2016 average due to tight supplies following below average harvests across most countries.
Le monde doit aujourd’hui répondre à un appel à la mobilisation sans précédent face à la situation de quatre pays menacés par la famine, et à la demande croissante d’aide humanitaire et de résilience. Dans ce contexte, il est de la plus haute importance d’informer la communauté de la sécurité alimentaire à l’échelle mondiale et nationale, quant au risque de crises alimentaires et à la sévérité de ces crises. Les parties prenantes ont largement investi dans l’analyse de la sécurité alimentaire et les systèmes d’alerte précoce afin de mieux prévenir et répondre aux crises alimentaires.
The European Union, FAO and WFP have joined forces with FEWS NET, UNICEF and regional organisations like CILSS, IGAD and SICA to coordinate needs assessment to increase the impact of humanitarian and resilience responses through the preparation of the “Global Report on Food Crises”. This Global Report aims to enhance coordination and decision making through a neutral analysis that informs programming and implementation.
Maize grain was the most informally traded commodity in Eastern Africa in the fourth quarter of 2016 but its share of total trade decreased slightly from 35 percent in the third quarter to 31 percent in the fourth quarter because of average production and supplies in Kenya, Tanzania,
Uganda, Rwanda and Burundi.
The El Niño induced drought resulted in 15 percent drop in regional cereal production from 29 million tonnes in 2015 to 26 million tonnes in 2016 which is about 11 percent decrease compared to the five-year average1 . Southern parts of Malawi, Mozambique and Madagascar as well as most of Zimbabwe, Lesotho, Botswana and Namibia have been significantly affected by this drought.
Approximately 40.8 million people (22.5% of rural population) will be food insecure in Southern Africa up to March 2017.
Maize grain remained the most traded commodity in Eastern Africa in the second quarter of 2016 since it is consumed by a large percentage of the population. However, the quality of maize available in the region is of poor quality resulting in significant rejection rates by millers.
Locally produced rice mostly from Tanzania was the second major crop traded in the region but is still grappling with issues of origin since some of it is mixed with Asian attracting the full East Africa common external tariff.
An extensive regional scale crop failure is expected in Southern Africa following an extremely dry cropping season. Consequently, the current regional cereal deficit of 7.9 million tonnes will increase steeply and unprecedented food price movements will continue through to the next harvest season. This will aggravate the food and nutrition security, health and HIV situation in the region.
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A. REGIONAL UPDATE