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25 Feb 2019 description

Executive summary

Many SADC Member States recorded normal to above-normal rainfall during the 2017/18 rainfall season, as predicted by the SADC Climate Services Centre (CSC) in August 2017 at the 21st Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF-21). In contrast, the approaching October 2018 - March 2019 rainfall season is forecasted to be normal to below-normal throughout the season over most of the region.

19 Feb 2019 description

Highlights
- A late and erratic onset of rains delayed planting and reduced area planted in southern and western parts of the region.
- A dry spell from mid-January to early February caused moderate to severe crop moisture stress in the central parts of the region. The dry spell ended in early February, allowing recovery of some crops. Observations however indicate that permanent wilting had occurred in several areas.

07 Feb 2019 description

Cyclical drought, food insecurity, cyclones, floods, disease outbreaks, and complex emergencies present significant challenges to vulnerable populations throughout the Southern Africa region. Between FY 2009 and FY 2018, USAID’s Office of U.S. Foreign Disaster Assistance (USAID/OFDA) and USAID’s Office of Food for Peace (USAID/FFP) provided humanitarian assistance in response to a range of natural andman-made disasters.

02 Feb 2019 description

Delayed start of season and significant rainfall deficits negatively impacting cropping conditions

29 Jan 2019 description

Situation Overview

  • The southern African continent is highly vulnerable to extreme climatological events, due to the combination of insufficient coping capacity, widespread poverty and strong seasonal rainfall patterns. The region is experiencing a meteorological drought.

  • This region has a strong precipitation seasonality, with most of the annual rainfall falling between November and March. The meteorological drought experienced in the region could impact the next lean season.

25 Jan 2019 description

Highlights

Well-below average rainfall has been received in most parts of the region for the October through early January period

  • Rainfall improved in parts of December through early and mid-January in some central areas, while erratic rains continued in the south

  • Extreme high temperatures affected many parts of the region in December

  • Seasonal forecasts for reduced rainfall continue to raise concerns of potentially negative impacts on crop harvests

Regional Summary

22 Dec 2018 description

Highlights

  • Well-below average rainfall has been received in most parts of the region since October, although recent improvements were experienced in some eastern areas

  • The low rains have been associated with a delayed season onset in western, central and southern parts of the region. Some areas experienced delays in season onset of 30 to 40 days

  • Pasture and livestock conditions deteriorated, and drought-related livestock deaths were reported

06 Dec 2018 description

Abnormal dryness develops in Angola, Zambia, and Zimbabwe

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Delayed seasonal rainfall and erratic precipitation in the last two months has caused dryness across Ethiopia, southern Somalia, and Kenya.

  2. Poorly distributed precipitation since September and high daytime temperatures have caused early season drought in South Africa and Lesotho.

  3. Consecutive weeks of poor rainfall has caused dryness across central and western Madagascar.

29 Nov 2018 description

Dry conditions persist in the Horn and southern Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Delayed seasonal rainfall and increased precipitation last month led to dryness in Ethiopia, southern Somalia and Kenya. Dryness is expected to strengthen into midNovember.

  2. Poorly distributed precipitation in the last two months and high daytime temperatures caused early season dryness in southern Botswana, South Africa, parts of Swaziland and Lesotho.

26 Nov 2018 description

HIGHLIGHTS

  • 9.6 million people were severely food-insecure in Southern Africa at the start of the lean season (October 2018- April 2019)

  • Three districts in Zimbabwe and two in Madagascar are facing Emergency food insecurity (IPC phase 4) due to extreme loss of livelihoods

  • There is at least an 80 per cent chance of an El Niño phenomenon between October and December 2018, which could exacerbate the deteriorating situation.

KEY MESSAGES

22 Nov 2018 description

The Greater Horn of Africa and Angola remain dry

  1. Moisture deficits develop across Ethiopia, the Jubba and Shabelle River basins of Somalia, and Kenya. Next week, below-average rainfall is expected to strengthen dryness.

  2. Poorly distributed precipitation in September and October, paired with high daytime temperatures caused abnormal early season dryness across Botswana, South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho.

  3. Several weeks of poor rainfall caused irregular dryness across Madagascar.

21 Nov 2018 description

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Climate Prediction Centre is predicting El Niño climatic conditions during the main 2018-19 growing season with 70-75% probability while IRI has increased the probability to more than 85%. Furthermore, the forecasts suggest a likelihood of a weak to moderate El Niño event. Historically El Niño climatic conditions have resulted in reduced rainfall across the southern part of Southern Africa.

20 Nov 2018 description

High risk countries and potential impacts on food security and agriculture

In view of the potential impact of the 2018/19 El Niño on food security and agriculture, high risk countries in Southern Africa, Horn of Africa, Asia and the Pacific and Latin America should be prioritized for further monitoring, analysis and early action.

17 Nov 2018 description

Highlights

  • Most parts of the region are experiencing a slow start to the rainfall season, with below average early rainfall received early in the season

  • Short term forecasts suggest that the slow onset of rains will continue until at least late November, potentially delaying planting of summer season crops in several areas

  • Seasonal forecasts suggest high chances for normal to below normal rains in many areas this year, with implications for crop production potential

Regional Summary

15 Nov 2018 description

Dryness remains in the Greater Horn of Africa, and early season dryness is observed in southern Africa

Africa Weather Hazards

  1. Delayed seasonal rainfall followed by modest precipitation has increased dryness in Ethiopia, the Jubba and Shabelle River basins of Somalia, and Kenya.

  2. Poorly distributed precipitation in the last two months coupled with high daytime temperatures has resulted in abnormal early season dryness across southern Botswana, South Africa, Swaziland and Lesotho.