Prepared by Allyson Rail, Brendan Edge, Derek Voitic, and Sam Chiappetta Executive Summary Haiti is facing multifaceted and serious challenges. Government institutions have ceased to function...
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Conflict Diagnostic: Central African Republic 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Central African Republic (CAR) was thought to be on the path to stability in 2019, but further fighting erupted in late 2020 due to contested elections. This has continued a...
The Civil War in Myanmar 2023 Conflict Diagnostic
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The current conflict in Myanmar began with the 2021 coup d’état. The conflict between the ruling junta and pro-democracry movement has accelerated environmental degradation and hurt...
Haiti + 2 more
Haiti Fragility Brief 2023
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The African slaves who manumitted themselves from the French in 1804 changed their nation to its Taino name: “Ayiti”, or Haiti, means “high mountains”. The uneven terrain which...
Afghanistan + 2 more
Afghanistan: Conflict Risk Diagnostic February 2022
Executive Summary The Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan in August of 2021 has presented a fundamental shift in the trajectory of the future of the country’s political, economic, and...
Ethiopia + 3 more
Beyond the Headlines: Forgotten Fragility in Ethiopia
Executive Summary As a cultural mosaic of over 80 diverse ethnic groups, interethnic tensions, power dynamics, and historical context are central to understanding all aspects of Ethiopia’s political,...
Burkina Faso + 3 more
State fragility in Burkina Faso: Analysis and Policy Brief
Executive Summary For decades, the land-locked country of Burkina Faso has avoided the exogenous shocks and internal conflicts that have plagued so many of its neighbors. As a result, authoritarian...
Sudan + 1 more
Sudan: Freedom, peace, and justice
Prepared by: Laura Stevens, Daphne Wang, and Hashim Ismail Executive Summary Sudan has ranked as one of the most fragile states in the world for the past decade. Since the establishment of the...
Nepal + 3 more
Nepal: State fragility and policy analysis brief
By Jennifer Coulthard, KC McLean, and Sarah Mackintosh Executive Summary Since the end of the civil war in 2006, Nepal has maintained the peace, established a new constitution, held successful...
Colombia conflict risk assessment 2017
Background ■ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrvuZpk65Rw ■ In May 1966 the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (“the FARC”) was established. ■ In August 2016, following four years of negotiations...
A Conflict Overlooked: Yemen in Crisis
Conflict Background Yemen has a weak, highly decentralized central government that has struggled to rule the northern Yemen Arab Republic (YAR) and the southern People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen...
2018 Conflict Risk Assessment Report Palestinian Territories: West Bank and Gaza Strip
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The ongoing conflict in the Palestinian territories has largely been characterized by its protracted history of armed conflict, fragile governance and high levels of political...
South Sudan: Conflict Risk Assessment Report 2018
Executive Summary This diagnostic report examines trends in structural factors in South Sudan since 2m013 based on risk assessment indicators, global trends, and key stakeholder interactions. Based...
DR Congo + 2 more
2018 Conflict Risk Diagnostic: Democratic Republic of Congo
Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) Background In 1960, the DRC gained independence from King Leopold II and Belgium after nationalist uprisings in now called Kinshasa. The newly independent Congo...
Central African Republic Conflict Assessment Report, February 2017
Executive Summary In 2013, the Central African Republic (CAR), a mineral-rich country, has descended into a violent inter-ethnic conflict between the majority Christian population and the Muslim...
Somalia fragile state analysis: Policy options for the government of Canada
Executive Summary: Despite billions in aid and a series of international interventions, Somalia has ranked as the world’s most fragile state for much of the past decade. This raises the question as...
World + 19 more
Assessing State Fragility with a Focus on Climate Change and Refugees: 2016 Country Indicators for Foreign Policy Report
Executive Summary This Country Indicators for Foreign Policy (CIFP) report provides a global fragility ranking for a total of 198 countries using 2014 data. South Sudan tops the list of most fragile...
Republic of Cyprus: Risk Assessment Report (4 February 2016)
Executive Summary The Northern third of the island is the primarily Turkish Cypriot & Turkish settler “Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus.” Although arguably de facto sovereign, TRNC is recognized...
Ukraine 2016: Conflict Risk Diagnostic
Background Since declaring independence in 1991, government corruption and economic turbulence have contributed to political unrest in Ukraine. With previous protests yielding little structural...
Burundi Conflict Risk Assessment, February 2016
Background Since gaining independence from Belgium in 1962, Burundi has been racked by successive waves of political violence. In the past fifty years, Burundi has suffered three civil conflicts,...