The recently published UNDP
report on natural disasters is
an important instrument to be used by policy makers in governments and
civil societies to prevent, or at least reduce, forced displacement induced
by hazardous natural events and to guide policymakers in a successful rebuilding
effort.
The report - "Reducing Disaster
Risk: Challenge for Development" identifies a clear link between vulnerability
due to the impact of natural disasters (such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions,
tropical storms, droughts and floods) and poverty. In the last 20 years
natural disasters have caused far higher death rates in poor countries
than in wealthy nations, although the incidence and intensity of the disasters
are comparable. According to the study, the combination of natural disaster
and poverty is one of the major causes of human loss of life estimating
about 1.5 million casualties in past two decades. Only 15 percent of the
people exposed to natural hazards live in poor countries, but their citizens
represent more than 50 percent of the reported deaths.
Hazardous events have also caused forced displacement. Their recurrent manifestation should serve to warn about how and what sort of assistance should be provided to the affected communities, both in the immediate aftermath and while undertaking resettlement of the populations and implementation of the rebuilding process.
On December 26th of 2003, an earthquake hit the Iranian city of Bam, claiming more than 40,000 lives and sparking an influx of 130,000 people into the city from nearby ruined villages. In January 2002, Mount Nyiragongo near Goma in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) erupted, killing almost 200 people, destroying 15 percent of Goma and leaving 120,000 homeless. Last month, heavy floods displaced 5,000 people in the western province of Herat, Afghanistan. Homes and thousands of acres of agricultural land were lost. In countries prone to earthquakes like Azerbaijan and Armenia, or to hurricanes, like Indonesia and Honduras, it is crucial that national government policies and international technical assistance adopt modes of development that prevent risk exposition and reduce future human losses and displacement.
One of the major recommendations of the report was that disaster risk assessment and risk mitigation analysis must be incorporated into policy decisions that guide development projects long before the natural disasters strike. To date, there has been more focus on disaster aftermath and problems such as how to improve humanitarian intervention in a timely and efficient way. In order to assist policy makers, the report has developed a quantitative Disaster Risk Index (DRI) that will be very useful in any crisis preparedness plan.
However, due to statistical constraints in its analysis, the DRI does not address vulnerability factors in situations like armed conflicts and in contexts of bad governance. The report identified about 53 armed conflicts during the 1990s that accounted for 3.9 million deaths worldwide. In complex emergencies, those factors can exacerbate natural hazards, such as low rainfall totals resulting in a famine that forces villagers to abandon their lands, or landslides impacting urban areas that are already over-crowed with internally displaced persons (IDPs) fleeing combat zones. Disaster management should be considered as a tool for conflict prevention initiatives and ultimately become instrumental for reducing the incidence of forced displacement.