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Refugee/Migrant crisis in Europe: Scenarios - Possible developments in transit countries over the next 6 months

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INTRODUCTION

SCENARIOS FOR APRIL – SEPTEMBER 2016

These scenarios are a description of situations that could occur in the coming six months, with their associated humanitarian consequences. The aim is to support strategic planning, create awareness, and promote preparedness activities for those responding to this crisis.

See the Methodology section for more information on how these scenarios were developed.

CURRENT SITUATION

In 2015, close to 900,000 migrants arrived on the Greek islands and proceeded to destination countries in Western Europe through the Western Balkan corridor. From November onward, transit through the Balkan countries was facilitated through the establishment of organised bus and train links into Austria and Germany. Given the undiminished number of arrivals in Greece and the desire to limit the influx into destination countries, unilateral measures by some transit and destination countries led to reduced access to facilitated transit through Balkan countries.

In mid-November 2015, transit was limited to asylum-seekers from Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq (SIAs). On 22 February 2016, the Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (FYROM) stopped allowing entry to Afghans, hindering their onward travel. On 8 March, the entire Balkan route was suddenly closed to all migrants. Several thousand were stranded along the Balkan route and, as migrants have continued to arrive in Greece, around 50,000 are currently stranded in camps at the Greece-FYROM border and throughout Greece. Stranded migrants are looking for alternative ways to reach destination countries and an increase in smuggling is expected for those who can pay for the journey. The humanitarian response has changed as a result of these border closures, from one that supported people in transit, to serving the needs of a stationary population The number of people eligible for relocation and asylum in Greece rose sharply in March, although adequate systems are not currently in place in Greece to process these claims.

The situation has been further shaped by EU discussions with Turkey to stem the migrant flow, and the EU-Turkey Agreement officially came into effect on 20 March. It calls for all new arrivals from Turkey to Greece to be returned to Turkey, and that for every returned Syrian, another Syrian will be resettled directly from Turkey to the EU.

While the effective implementation of the Agreement is still in doubt, migrants continue to arrive on the Greek islands, with several hundred each day since 20 March. Another major migration route across the Mediterranean Sea, from Libya to Italy, has seen a spike in arrival numbers in March. This is unsurprising, as migration numbers across the Mediterranean were expected to increase with the onset of spring and better crossing conditions.