*Little change to estimates of cereals harvests

Maize and wheat prices remain high, but may have peaked*

KEY POINTS

• Estimates of cereal harvests have changed little from August to September. Further cuts to estimates of the already bad US maize harvest have been quite small.

• Hence the sharp price rises seen in the maize and wheat markets in July have probably reached their limit — even if at more than US$320 a tonne for maize, US$365 a tonne for wheat, prices are high.

• With maize stocks very low indeed, there is no room for additional harvest failures.

• Attention thus now turns to the main Southern Hemisphere crop season that starts from November onwards. Early warnings of an El Niño for late 2012, early 2013 are worrying: it is not yet clear, however, how intense the warming of Pacific equatorial waters will be.