Food Assistance Outlook Brief November 2011
PROJECTED FOOD ASSISTANCE NEEDS FOR MAY 2012
This section summarizes FEWS NET’s most forward-looking analysis of projected external emergency food assistance needs, six months from now, in countries where FEWS NET has a staff presence. Overall needs at a national level are compared to typical needs at this time of year during the last five years and categorized as Above-average, Average, or Below-average/No need. A star (*) indicates new information this month. Projected lean season months that are highlighted in red indicate either an early start or an extension to the typical lean season. For more detail on these projections, please visit www.fews.net.
ABOVE‐AVERAGE ASSISTANCE NEEDS PROJECTED IN MAY 2012
DJIBOUTI: Pastoral areas in crisis, but some improvement expected
Projected Central/NW lean season: Jan ‐ Mar
Food assistance needs are expected to remain above average in pastoral and urban areas given several, consecutive poor seasons, a ban on charcoal production and firewood sales, and continued above‐average staple food prices.
ETHIOPIA: Above‐average needs likely to persist
Projected lean season (marginal meher): Apr/May ‐ Sep
The current Emergency in southern pastoral areas, delayed and below‐average Belg 2011 and anticipated Belg 2012 harvests, localized deficits in eastern Meher areas, and the possibility of poor March‐May 2012 rains will result in above‐average emergency assistance needs in May.
*GUATEMALA: Needs driven by damages caused by heavy rains
Projected lean season (East): Mar/Apr ‐ Aug
Crop and infrastructure damage due to Tropical Depression 12‐E and subsequent rains will drive above‐average needs in May 2012. Needs will likely be concentrated in the Highlands, where crop damage will lead to an early start to the lean season.
KENYA: Improvements expected to follow Oct‐Dec season
Projected lean season (northern pastoral): Ongoing ‐ Dec
October‐December rains are forecast to be average, though the asset losses which have resulted from the recent drought will drive above‐average needs in May. A poor start to the April‐June rains, a possibility given the developing La Niña, would further exacerbate expected food insecurity.
*MAURITANIA: Season ends poorly, cereal deficits likely
Projected agropastoral lean season: Feb ‐ Aug
Poor pasture and agricultural production, combined with high prices for imported cereals, are likely to limit food access for poor households.
SOMALIA: Famine expected to persist through at least January
Projected lean season (S. cropping): Feb ‐ May
Famine continues in parts of the South. Despite temporary improvement due to assistance and Deyr harvests in Jan/Feb, Emergency levels of acute food insecurity will persist through the peak of the lean season in May in cropping areas of southern Somalia, especially if April‐June rains are poor.
SOUTH SUDAN: Insecurity, population movement, and high food prices
Projected lean season (border areas): Mar/Apr ‐ Aug
Food assistance needs will be above average given localized crop deficits, above‐average demand due to the high returnee, IDP, and refugee populations, and the impact of ongoing trade restrictions from Sudan, particularly in border states.
SUDAN: Very poor harvest and government imposed limits on assistance
Projected lean season: Mar ‐ Aug
Below‐average production, continued conflict and the reduced value of local currency are expected to drive above‐average needs during 2012. The most food‐insecure areas over the coming consumption year are likely to be Blue Nile, South Kordofan, Darfur, Abeyi, and Red Sea states.