Vanuatu: TC Warning Number 20
Tropical Cyclone Warning Number 20 issued by the Vanuatu Meteorological Service, Port Vila at 12:08pm VUT Monday 21 February 2011 for South Malampa, Shefa and Tafea Province.
At 11:00am local time, Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu was located near 17.9 degrees South 169.8 degrees East, bottom right of square letter I, number 7 (I, 7) of the Vanuatu tropical cyclone tracking map. This is about 120 KM northeast of Erromango and 150 KM east southeast of Efate. Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu moved moved in a south direction at 8 KM/HR (4 knots) in the past 6 hours. The central pressure of the system is estimated at 927 hPa. Winds close to the centre estimated at 185 KM/HR (100 knots). System expected to weaken in the next 12 hours.
Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu is forecast to be at 19.0 degrees South 170.1 degrees East within the next 06 to 12 hours.
Damaging Gale Force winds of 75 KM/HR (40 KTS) over Malampa will continue to weaken in the next 6 hours as the system moves south southeast.
Destructive Storm force winds of 90KM/HR (50 KTS), gusting to 130KM/HR (70 KTS) will continue to affect Shefa province. Winds over Shefa Province will weaken in the next 6 to 12 hours as the system continues its south southeast track. Destructive storm force winds of 90KM/HR (50 KTS), gusting to 130KM/HR (70 KTS) are now expected over Tafea Province. Winds will increase to Destructive Hurricane force winds of 145KM/HR (80 KTS), gusting to 205KM/HR (110 KTS) in the next 6 to 12 hours.
Severe Tropcial Cyclone Atu may make landfall on the island of Futuna at around midnight tonight, which means the surrounding islands of Futuna, Erromango, Tanna and Aneityum may experience destructive hurricane force winds of 145 KM/HR (80 KTS) within the next 6 to 12 hours.
People over Tafea province must take preautionary measures immediately.
Date and Time Position Intensity
+06 hours (5pm, 21 Feb) 18.3S, 169.9E 90 KTS (165 KM/HR)
+12 hours (11pm, 21 Feb) 19.0S, 170.1E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+18 hours (5am, 22 Feb) 19.7S, 170.4E 80 KTS (150 KM/HR)
+24 hours (11am, 22 Feb) 20.7S, 170.6E 70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+36 hours (11pm, 22 Feb) 23.0S, 171.4E 70 KTS (130 KM/HR)
+48 hours (11am, 23 Feb) 25.8S, 172.9E 60 KTS (110 KM/HR)
Very rough seas with very heavy swells expected. Heavy rainfall and flooding, including coastal flooding also expected in the affected areas. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) advises people that Red Alert remains for Shefa and Tafea province. The all clear is given to malampa province. For action on this alert call the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) on 24686 or 7771188.
The Vanuatu Meteorological Service will issue the next warning on Severe Tropical Cyclone Atu at 3:00pm. People over Shefa and Tafea provinces should continue to listen to all Radio Outlets to obtain the latest information on this system. This warning and the Forecast Track map are available on VMS's website www.meteo.gov.vu.