- Favourable harvest of 2010 main season paddy crop is expected.

- Stable prices of staples such as rice and maize.

- Chronic poverty and food insecurity persist.

Favourable harvest of 2010 main season paddy crop is expected

In the absence of the official figures so far, FAO preliminarily estimates the 2010/11 (July/June) paddy production including this season's main paddy harvest and a forecast for small amount of secondary crop later in the year, at 130 000 tonnes, some 7 percent over the last year. Maize crop for 2010/11 is at 120 000 tonnes, although slightly lower than record harvest of 2009/10 still higher than the average of the past five years.

The Minsitry of Agriculture, based on the crop cutting surveys during the harvest periods of rice and maize crops, established the total paddy production for 2009 as 120 775 tonnes, about 50 percent higher than the previous year's bumper harvest. Similalrly, maize production of 2009 is estimated at 134 715 tonnes, or 34 percent over 2008. The reasons for these phenamenal increases in production are - excellent rainfall and favorable weather conditions, high crop prices, and increased use of fertilizer, improved seed and tractors (provided under large scale Government scheme). Crop monitoring and production estimation in Timor-Leste is not rigourous and extensive due to the lack of technical capacity and resources. Hence it is likely that these estimates are on the high side. Currently planting of the main season crops is virtually completed. The rainfall and input situation in general is satisfactory.