FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Favourable prospects for the 2012 main season paddy rice and maize production

• Reduced cereal imports during 2012/13 forecast

• Chronic poverty and food insecurity persist

Good 2012 main season paddy rice and maize crops anticipated

Harvesting of the 2012 main season paddy rice, commenced in May and will continue into July, while that of the maize was completed in April. The Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries (MAF) has forecast the 2012 aggregate rice paddy production at a record level of 145 996 tonnes (including 102 197 tonnes estimate for the main season), almost 50 percent higher than the previous year’s above-average output. Similarly, the 2012 total maize production has been officialy estimated at a record level of 139 673 tonnes (including 48 886 tonnes for the main season). This is nearly five times higher than the flood-affected output in 2011 but 32 percent above the average of the previous five years. The excessive rains during Novermber 2010 and April 2011 desimated the crop which consequently reduced the seed availaibility for the subsequent off-season plantings.

The significant increase in 2012 production is a result of several factors. These include an expansion in the planted area by 18 percent for the paddy crop and 10 percent for maize, increased use of high quality seeds and adoption of new technologies including newly imported machinery. These initiative were implemented through the Ministry of Agricutlure and Fisheries’s Fila Rai Gratiutu program, which aims to enhance agricultural productivity.

Planting of the 2012 off-season crops, mainly paddy and maize, began in April and is expected to last until July. Early prospects are promising as rainfall at the start of the 2012 off-season has been generally satisfactory over the main producing areas of the country.

The preliminery estimate of the 2012 aggregatecereal production (main season and off-season) is set at 286 000 tonnes (including paddy), indicating a considerable increase from the previous year’s production estimated at 129 000 tonnes, which was some 59 000 below the previous five-year average.

Reduced imports during 2012/13 forecast

Owing to the improved aggregate cereal production in 2012, the cereal imports for 2012/13 marketing year (July/June) are forecast to be lower than the record imports in 2011/12.

Crop monitoring and production estimation in Timor-Leste is not rigorous and extensive due to the lack of technical capacity and resources. A newly EU funded FAO project to establish a National Information and Early Warning System (NIEWS), began earlier this year, and is aimed at strengthening crop monitoring and estimation in the country.

Chronic poverty and food insecurity persist

Although the per capita gross national income (GNI) has increased to USD 2 060 in 2010 from USD 395 in 2002 (according to the World Bank estimates), Timor-Leste remains one the poorest countries in Asia. Thus food insecurity needs to be monitored due to the country’s high dependence on cereal imports, social instability, and high unemployment.