Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report, November 2012

GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In November, expected precipitation at lower elevations, and snowfall at higher elevations can lead to flash flooding when rapid melting occurs. Freezing temperatures can also cause local damage to crops.

WEATHER

In November, temperature is expected to be above long term averages country-wide except for parts of GBAO. Precipitation is expected to be above averages in all regions, except GBAO.

ENERGY SECURITY

The seasonal shift to rationing of electricity began in early October, coinciding with the start of normal reductions of outflows from the Nurek Reservoir to assure electrical production capacity for the winter. Water levels in Nurek are above average for this time of year.

FOOD SECURITY

Wheat flour prices continue to increase in the main and regional markets and are likely to place pressure on vulnerable families to meet food needs. Special measures are likely to be needed in the coming months to mitigate the impact of food price increase.

HEALTH

For the first ten months of 2012, six fewer cases of Anthrax were reported when compared to the same period in 2011. During the same ten months, more than 10,000 cases of viral hepatitis are registered, 1,048 cases more than the same period in 2011.

MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES

Cumulative out migration levels are higher than from 2009 to 2011. Remittances are running at higher levels than for the same periods over the past 10 years. These increases are likely mitigating the impacts of increased food prices, but only for those families who have access to remittances.

ECONOMICS.

Annual GDP as of September 2012 totaled 24,846.7 million Tajik Somoni (5,217.9 million USD). Consumer price inflation is 5.6%, down from 13.4% last year. Bank credits as of 1 October 2012 totaled 5.1 billion Tajik Somoni (1,071.4 million USD). Overdue credits for January-September 2012 totaled 4.7 billion Tajik Somoni (987.4 million USD). Repaid credits totaled 4.3 billion Tajik Somoni (903.4 million USD). The January – September 2012 foreign trade turnover equaled 3,652.5 million USD, 11.3% more than the same period in 2011. Exports totaled 969.2 million USD and imports 2,683.3 million USD.