Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report, July 2013 [EN/RU]

Report
from UN Development Programme
Published on 16 Jul 2013

GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In July there is high probability of emergencies due to high air temperatures, high river levels, floods and mudflows due to intensive melting of glaciers in Zarafshan, Isfarinka, Vakhsh, Pyandj, Varzov, Gund, Shirkent, Karatag, Hanaka, Kafirnigan river basins.

WEATHER

Temperatures in July will be 1°C above long-term averages in all regions except for GBAO and higher elevations of DRD. Precipitation is expected to be below normal in Khatlon Province and above normal in other regions of the country.

ENERGY SECURITY

Electricity generation in June increased by 5.7% compared to May 2013. The level of water in Nurek reservoir in June was 18.3 meters higher compared to May. In June 2013, 114.4 million kWh of electricity was supplied to Afghanistan, 44.8% more than in May 2013, and 7.8% of the total generated power.

FOOD SECURITY

In June wheat flour prices slightly increased compared to May, but still stay high at all big and regional markets of the country when compared to the same period of last year. A total of 332,290 tons of crops have been harvested in June, 178,686 tons more compared to the same period of last year. Good cereal harvests should create a downward pressure on cereal prices.

HEALTH

In June, the epidemiological situation for infectious diseases is characterized as comparatively safe. The risk of acute respiratory diseases and typhoid fever remains high with the summer period.

MIGRATION

Cumulative out migration levels in June 2013 were higher compared to the same period of last year. Monthly labour migration shows reduction trends in compare to the same period of last year. In June, the of labour migration decreased by 21.6% in compare to May.

ECONOMY

For January to May 2013 GDP was 11.9 billion Somoni (2.5 billion USD). Industrial production increased by 8.2% compared to the same period in 2012. Consumer price inflation was 1.5% compared to December 2012. As of June 1, 2013 the total balance of bank credits was 6.3 billion Somoni (1.324 billion USD). Volume of issued loans by banks was 3.6 billion Somoni (756.3 million USD). For January to May, 2013 foreign trade turnover reached 2.143 billion USD which is 5.3% less compared to the same period in 2012. Exports totalled 534.3 million USD, and imports – 1,608.5 million USD.