Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report, January 2013

GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In January, there is a high likelihood of heavy snowfall, freezing temperatures and avalanches. Above average precipitation projected for January-February may increase the likelihood of heavy snowfall and avalanches (see below).

WEATHER

In January, temperatures will be below long term averages, while in February temperatures are expected to be above long term averages. Precipitation is expected to be above averages nationwide in January and February.

ENERGY SECURITY

The electricity production in December 2012 increased 15.8% compared to November. Water levels in Nurek are near average for this time of year.

FOOD SECURITY

Wheat flour prices remain at or close to historic highs in the main and regional markets of the country. High prices are likely to continue and place pressure on vulnerable families to meet food needs.

HEALTH

In 2012, acute respiratory infections totaled 238,911 reported cases, 8% lower than in 2011. Morbidity from various types of influenza are expected to increase. Currently the prevalence of Type B influenza (H3N2) is the same as Type A influenza (H1N1).

MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES

Cumulative out migration levels were higher in 2012 than from 2009 to 2011. Remittances are running at higher levels than for the past 10 years, a seasonal drop in migration and remittances is expected through March 2013 although migration rates at the end of 2012 were higher than levels in 2009-2011 and may indicate above average remittances in early 2013.

ECONOMY

November 2012 GDP totaled 32,567.3 million Tajik Somoni (6,838.6 million USD). Consumer price inflation is 6.3%, down from 9.1% last year. Total bank credits as of 1 December 2012 totaled 5.1 billion Tajik Somoni (1.071 billion USD). The January to November 2012 foreign trade turnover equaled 4.6 billion USD, 14.5% more than the same period in 2011. Exports totaled 1,24 billion USD and imports 3.402 billion USD.