Tajikistan Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report, February 2013

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GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In February there is a high likelihood of heavy snowfall, freezing temperatures and avalanches. Mudflow and floods are also expected at the lower elevations of the country. Above average precipitation projected for February may increase the likelihood of heavy snowfall and avalanches (see below).

WEATHER

In February, temperatures will be above long term averages. Precipitation is expected to be above averages nationwide.

ENERGY SECURITY

The electricity production in January 2013 increased 2.1% compared to December, 2012. Water levels in Nurek are near average for this time of year.

FOOD SECURITY Wheat flour prices remain at or close to historic highs in the main and regional markets of the country. High prices are likely to continue and place pressure on vulnerable families to meet food needs.

HEALTH

In February 2013, an increase in acute respiratory infections is expected due the fluctuation of temperatures and the start of the second semester in high schools. Currently the prevalence of Type B influenza (H3N2) is the same as Type A influenza (H1N1).

MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES

Cumulative out migration levels were higher in January 2013 than the same period last year. Remittances are running at higher levels in January 2012 (+8%) than for January 2012. However, a seasonal drop in migration and remittances is expected through March 2013.

ECONOMY

November 2012, GDP totaled 36.1 billion Tajik Somoni (7.6 million USD). Industrial production increased by 10.4% compared to the same period in 2011. Consumer price inflation is 6.4%, down from 9.3% last year. Total bank credits as of 1 January 2013 totaled 5.4 billion Tajik Somoni (1.13 billion USD). The amount of credit provided in different sectors of economy reached 7.0 billion Somoni (1.47 billion USD). The 2012 foreign trade turnover equaled 5.1 billion USD, 15.1% more than the same period in 2011. Exports totaled 1.4 billion USD and imports 3.8 billion USD.