Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report, May 2012
Mudflows and floods can be expected through the month and may cause severe damage, particularly after periods of heavy rainfall. Local and national warning systems should be monitored closely.
Average precipitation but above average temperatures are forecasted for May for most of Tajikistan.
Tajikistan has shifted to the “Vegetation” (spring-summer) electricity generation period, when water supplies are adequate for maximum electricity generation. Natural gas supplies have resumed from Uzbekistan. Coal production is increasing.
While wheat flour prices in Khujand continue to drop similar levels of price reductions have not been noted in Kurgan-Tube or Dushanbe, and it is unclear why this is the case. Fuel prices have not changed significantly.
MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES
Reported migration rates for the first four months of 2012 are significantly above 2011 levels. In April 314,783 persons left Tajikistan and 144,364 persons returned. Reported remittances are 22% above April 2011.
GDP increased from January to March by 7.2% and totaled 5,577.7 million Tajik Somoni (117,2 million USD). In January – March 2012, the foreign trade turnover equaled 1,245.5 million USD, with a negative trade balance of 589.1 million USD. Consumer price inflation in March 2012 increased 1.2% compared to December, 2011. For February 2012, the value of the Government budget was 1,262.7 million Tajik Somoni (265 million USD) or 37.9% of GDP. Government budget expenses for February 2012 totaled 1,195.2 million Tajik Somoni (251 million USD). Bank credits as of 1 April 2012 totaled 4.3 billion Tajik Somoni (930 million USD).