Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report, February 2012
NATURAL HAZARDS Heavy snowfall, freezing condition, avalanches, mudflow and floods (for the Yakhsu and Kizilsu Rivers) are the major natural hazards events likely to occur in February according to the Information Management and Analytical Center (IMAC) of the Committee of Emergency Situations.
The first 10 days of the month will experience colder than average temperatures. The following 19 days are forecast to have above average temperatures. Precipitation is forecast to be above average. Warmer conditions should reduce demand on the electricity supply for heating and increase overall availability of electricity.
Total electricity generation in January 2012 (1,556 Gigawatts) increased by 1.5% compared to December 2011. The price of imported natural gas decreased to 300 USD/1,000 m3 from December 2011 (311 USD/1,000 m3 ). Water in storage in Nurek reservoir is above average, increasing the likelihood of sufficient supplies for electricity production until April, when the spring melt will begin filling the reservoir.
Wheat flour prices remain at or near historical highs despite good regional wheat harvests. Fuel prices remain at or near historical highs, and will likely only decrease as Russian export duties (and thus global prices) decrease.
The Sanitary Epidemiological Service reports the Influenza season began in November 2011 and will continue to April 2012. Influenza incidence to date is only slightly higher than last season. ECONOMY GDP in 2011 increased by 7.4%, 0.9% more than in 2010 and totaled 30.1 billion Tajik Somoni (6.3 billion USD). Exports in 2011 totaled 1.3 billion USD, 5.2% more than in 2010. Imports totaled 3.2 billion USD, 19.9% more than in 2010. Unofficial reports indicate that remittances in January totaled 126 million USD, 26% more than in January 2011.