Monitoring & Early Warning Monthly Report, April 2012
During April, avalanches, mudflows and floods can be expected. Floods can be triggered by rain on snow and mudflows triggered by locally heavy precipitation or rapid snow melt.
Average precipitation but above average temperatures are forecasted for April for most of Tajikistan.
Increased flows into the Nurek Cascade have resulted in the lifting of restrictions on electricity. Reports indicate that an agreement has been reached with Uzbekistan on the supply of natural gas, and deliveries restarted on 16 April.
Wheat flour prices in Khujand continue to drop while prices in Kurgan-Tube and Dushanbe remain stable, possible reflecting rail delivery delays (Kurgan-Tube) and limited roads access to the north due to heavy snow and avalanches (Dushanbe). Fuel prices have dropped slightly.
The Ministry of Agriculture reports damage to crops and livestock due to severe weather in the fall of 2011/winter 2011-2012, as well as a delay in spring planting.
MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES
Reported migration rates for the first three months of 2012 are significantly above 2011 levels. Reported remittances are 25% above 2011 in March. These increases may indicate a reaction to shocks during the fall 2011 and winter 2011-2012.
GDP increased from January to February by 6.9% and totaled 3,334.5 million Tajik Somoni (701 million USD). In January - February 2012, the foreign trade turnover equaled 827.1 million USD, with a negative trade balance of 415.3 million USD. Consumer price inflation in February 2012 increased 0.2% compared to January, 2012. For January 2012, the value of the Government budget was 607.7 million Tajik Somoni (128 million USD) or 36.2% of GDP. Government budget expenses for January 2012 totaled 417.8 million Tajik Somoni (88 million USD). Bank credits as of 1 March 2012 totaled 4.4 billion Tajik Somoni (925.5 million USD).