Monitoring and Early Warning in Tajikistan: Monthly Report - October 2014

GENERAL TRENDS

NATURAL HAZARDS

In October, the probability of weather emergencies is low. Rain is possible at lower elevations, snow is possible in the mountains, and frost is possible at higher elevations and foothill areas.

WEATHER

Temperatures in October will be 10C above the long-term average in Khatlon Province and at lower elevations in the DRD; within the norm in Sughd Province and higher elevations in the DRD; and 1-20C above the long-term average in GBAO. Monthly precipitation is expected to be above normal at higher elevations in the DRD and the western regions of GBAO, lower than normal in Khatlon and Sughd Provinces and in the eastern regions of GBAO.

ENERGY SECURITY

Electricity generation in September decreased by 8.3 percent compared to August 2014. The water level in the Nurek reservoir in September was 0.13 meters lower than in August 2014. In September 2014, the Sangtuda–1 and Sangtuda–2 hydropower plants supplied 175.5 million kW/h of electricity to Afghanistan, which is 36.3 million kW/h more than in the same period of last year.

FOOD SECURITY

Local wheat and wheat flour prices will remain stable or decline in October as the local harvest and regional imports continue to flow into markets of Tajikistan. According to forecasts in the fourth quarter, prices of petroleum products, oil and lubricants will increase by 20 percent in the country.

HEALTH

With the beginning of the autumn season, and due to access of school-age children to poor-quality water in open reservoirs, the risk of acute intestinal infections and water-borne diseases, particularly viral hepatitis, increases.

MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES

Indicators of overall migration levels in September 2014 were lower compared to the same period of the last year. In January-September 2014, the number of migrant workers was 17.1 percent less than in the same period of 2013.

ECONOMY

The GDP totalled 26,861.2 million TJS (5,513.8 million USD) for January-August 2014. Industrial production increased by 5.0 percent compared to the same period in 2013. Consumer price inflation was 5.4 percent compared to December 2013. The total balance of bank credits was 8.9 billion TJS (1,827.5 million USD) for January-August. The volume of loans granted by banks amounted to 7.3 billion TJS (1,499.0 million USD). In January-August 2014 foreign trade turnover was equal to 3,808.1 million USD, 11.3 percent more than in the same period in 2013. Exports totaled 697.2 million USD, and imports totaled 3,110.9 million USD.