Food prices continue to increase in most reference markets and remain above average

Key messages

• As of June 2012, about 4.7 million people in Sudan face Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity. Food insecurity is driven principally by conflict in parts of South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur, food shortages due to the poor 2011/12 harvest, high inflation, above-average food prices, and the impact of reduced oil revenues.

• African Union-initiated peace talks between Sudan and South Sudan in May/June failed to result in an agreement on a buffer zone. Border tensions remain high, particularly in South Kordofan and Blue Nile. Fighting in Blue Nile in Bau locality and in the Angasana Mountains in May has triggered movements of about 35,000 people to Upper Nile State in South Sudan.

• Food prices remain well above average, particularly in Darfur, due to significant shortfalls in supply caused by poor local production and disrupted trade flows from central Sudan. Markets in Darfur have reported the highest grain prices in Sudan for the last two months.

• An increased pattern of lawlessness and insecurity in parts of Darfur and North Kordofan is reportedly due to the return of members of the Sudanese Revolutionary Front (SRF) from South Sudan. SRF has reportedly been attacking villages, commercial convoys, and GoS garrison towns.

• The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook forecast for the June – September season states that average to above-average rains are likely for most parts of Sudan. As of mid-June, rains started in southern, central and western parts of Sudan. However, area cultivated is expected to be below average given the likelihood of continued conflict in the important sorghum-producing areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile.