Sudan Food Security Outlook October 2013 to March 2014
Current acute food insecurity in Sudan was mainly derived by conflict
As of October 2013, about 3.3 million people in Sudan face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity, mostly driven by the impacts of conflict. This figure has declined by 20 percent since last month, the peak of the lean season.
The 2013/14 harvest is expected to be 15-20 percent below average, due to a late start to the rains, and rainfall deficits during critical points in the season. In the central and eastern surplus-producing areas of Sudan, the harvest is likely to be well below average, roughly 60-70 percent of average.
Officials from Sudan and South Sudan reached an agreement in late September to normalize relations and expel rebel groups from the demilitarized zone. Implementation of the agreement would improve trade and labor flows between the countries. However, the unilateral referendum conducted in Abyei in late October by the local community is likely to increase tensions in the area.
The Government of Sudan’s decision in September 2013 to lift fuel subsidies has led to a 70 percent increase in fuel prices. In turn, this has prompted moderate to high increases (20-50 percent) in consumer prices of food and non-food items. Due to the below-average harvest, high production and transport costs, and speculative behavior, food prices are expected to be at least 10 percent higher between October 2013 and April 2014 than during the same period last year.
Stressed and Crisis levels of food insecurity are likely to persist among IDPs and poor residents in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, and among newly displaced persons in Darfur throughout the scenario period. Humanitarian assistance for long-standing IDPs in Darfur and returnees will maintain Stressed levels of food insecurity.