2012/2013 season to be impacted by conflict, fuel prices, and atypical livestock movements

Key Messages

An estimated 4.6 million people in Sudan are in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) levels of food insecurity. The highest levels of food insecurity are present among poor households and IDPs in conflict-affected areas of Darfur, South Kordofan, and Blue Nile states. A confluence of factors – including the impacts of conflict, declining macroeconomic indicators, sharply rising food prices, and heightened fuel prices – is likely to maintain present levels of food insecurity through at least September.

Improvements in food availability and access are expected across the country during the October to December period as harvests begin. However, these improvements will be limited in areas heavily affected by conflict, particularly Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N)-controlled areas of South Kordofan and Blue Nile, where a total of 200,000 – 300,000 people are displaced. Limitations on movement, trade, and access to humanitarian assistance continue in these areas, though to a lesser degree in Blue Nile State.

Rainfall performance to date for the June to September season has been consistent with the Greater Horn of Africa climate outlook forecast for average to above-average rains. However, area planted is likely to be below average due to insecurity in parts of South Kordofan, Blue Nile, and Darfur, as well as heightened production and fuel costs. Crop development and harvesting may be impacted by atypical numbers of livestock in farming areas, particularly in Blue Nile, as herders may opt not to migrate to typical dry season grazing areas in South Sudan next year due to insecurity.