Intensified conflict in border areas increases the size of the food insecure population

Key messages

• The size of the food insecure population has increased from 4.5 million people last month to 4.7 million in April, due to increased conflict in some parts of South Kordofan and reduced access to food because of gradual depletion of food stocks at the household level and atypically high prices across most key markets.

• Food insecurity is of greatest concern in areas controlled by the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N) in South Kordofan, where about 200,000 – 250,000 people now face Crisis to Emergency (IPC Phase 3 and 4) levels of food insecurity. Food insecurity is expected to deteriorate through the scenario period (April to September 2012), though not to Phase 5 levels, as households exhaust coping strategies. Current restrictions on humanitarian access, trade flows, and population movements are assumed to continue.

• Crisis levels of food insecurity are expected in SPLM-N-controlled areas of Blue Nile through September, due to similar – though less severe – restrictions on trade, movement, and assistance as in South Kordofan.

• Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Sudan People’s Liberation Army (SPLA) of South Sudan in the Heglig oil region (South Kordofan) in April has displaced approximately 10,000 people to Khresana, Kilak, and other villages and increased the potential for additional and more intense conflict.

• Crisis levels of food insecurity are likely to continue through September in North Darfur and the northern parts of South Darfur, where the harvest performed poorly, and in Jebel Mara due to the impacts of insecurity on food access.