Sudan: Darfur Humanitarian Profile No. 15 - Situation as of 01 Jun 2005
I. Affected Population -- trends and analysis
1. As of 1 June the total affected population in Darfur has risen to over 2.9 million people with an increase of 222,000 persons from 1 May. The rise is entirely attributable to an increase in non-IDP affected populations.
2. The number of IDPs is slightly declining in Darfur as a whole. The decrease is a result of new headcounts in several IDP gatherings and the spontaneous and sporadic return of IDPs to the few areas where the security situation has improved.
3. At the same time, the number of affected populations has increased by almost 250,000 people over the last month. With the onset of the lean season, more people are now relying on external food aid. The overall negative security situation has furthermore greatly deranged the economic fabric of the region, with highly reduced agricultural activities and livestock assets, and less commercial activity in goods and cattle. During the 2004 planting season, it was estimated that less than 30% of arable land was cultivated. This proportion is set to decline further. With 170,000 more affected people over the last month, North Darfur represents the largest increase. This evolution reflects local drought and a simultaneous increased outreach of humanitarian agencies.
4. Chart 1 shows the evolution of affected populations and the proportion of IDPs since April 2004.
CHART 1. Estimated Number of IDPs and the Total Affect Population (UN estimates since April 2004)
5. Humanitarian access in Darfur is primarily determined by a combination of two factors:
- The degree of insecurity, which may require the United Nations and other humanitarian partners to suspend operations in certain areas for a certain amount of time;
- Road and weather conditions, which especially during the rainy season can severely limit access temporarily to some locations.
Chart 2 indicates the proportion of the affected population accessible according to UN security standards. In May, UN accessibility in Darfur as a whole stood at 88% on average. In South Darfur, still affected by a general situation of insecurity, 22% of the population cannot be accessed by the UN.
CHART 2. Percent of Affected Population Accessible to UN Humanitarian Aid
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