East Africa Food Security Outlook Update June 2013
Suspending the Implementation Matrix could reduce food security in Sudan and South Sudan
• Food security outcomes have improved in many countries in East Africa although 12.9 million people remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2), Crisis (IPC Phase 3), and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania, and Rwanda (Figure 1). The main reason for the improved food security outcomes is average to above average agricultural and livestock production in many parts of the region. Further improvements in food security are anticipated with upcoming harvests in June/July.
• Food security is expected to deteriorate through September in the conflict-affected parts of Sudan, the border areas of Sudan and South Sudan, and areas affected by conflict within South Sudan. Food security is also expected to deteriorate in the Belg producing areas of the northeastern highlands of Ethiopia. In the areas relying on the June to September rains and harvest between October and January in Ethiopia, Sudan, and South Sudan, food security is expected to seasonally deteriorate with the start of the May/June to September lean seasons.
• The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) consensus climate outlook for the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) region for June to September indicates increased likelihood of average to below average total rainfall over much of the region. Increased likelihood of near average to above average rainfall is indicated over central parts of the northern sector as well as the coastal and extreme western parts of the equatorial sector.