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South Sudan

WFP South Sudan Market Price Monitoring Bulletin - 1st – 31st August 2016

Attachments

Market Highlights

  • Inflation: The South Sudan August 2016 inflation rate peaked to an all-time higher of 730 percent year-on-year, 70 points more than the 661 percent in July, due to an 850 percent rise in the cost of food and non-alcoholic beverages.

  • Exchange Rate: The South Sudan Pound hit a record low against the U.S. dollar in August 2016, exchanging at SSP 67/1$ in Juba down from SSP 65/US$ a month earlier. The SSP has lost further ground to the dollar in the first week of September exchanging at SSP 80/US$ in the black market in Juba.

  • Cost of Fuel and Local produced Grains and Imported Staples: Fuel shortages, high cost of transportation, dollar scarcity in addition to insecurity along most trade routes and seasonal rains continued to disrupt trade between states as well as importation of food through Juba-Nimule Road. As a result, cereal and imported food prices sustained rising trends in many areas. Exception was in parts of the Greater Equatoria where prices of locally produced food (cereals, beans and vegetables) stabilized slightly month-on-month due to first season harvests. However, food prices remained significantly elevated when compared to the same period last year and the five year average in all markets.

  • Outlook: Looking forward, hyperinflation phenomena will most likely extend into 2017 given the scale of the prevailing insecurity, geo-political and economic crises facing the country. The relative price stability in Equatoria will most likely be short-lived given the lower harvest prospects due to insecurity and recent fighting in Juba that disrupted the first season harvesting. The second season cropping in Equatoria, the main season, will most likely be disrupted if the current insecurity situation does not improve, signalling hard times ahead for farming households early next year. Elsewhere, food availability is expected to improve temporarily during the green and main harvests in September-October - November-December in parts of Warrap, Northern Bhar el Ghazal and Upper Nile. All other factors held constant, the green harvest starting this month in these areas is expected to increase flows of locally produced commodities into surrounding markets and will help moderate price increases. As per the May 2016 market assessment, markets should be able to adequately respond to increased demand and will likely support Cash Based Transfer Interventions.

  • Despite the relative calm that has been holding in Juba for sometimes now, the prospects of violence escalating further remains unpredictable but a return to large-scale fighting would be devastating to the economy and food security and nutrition situation.