South Sudan Food Security Outlook October 2013 to March 2014
Food security outcomes will improve with harvests beginning in October
Overall, an average harvest is expected for the 2013/2014 season in South Sudan, though crop performance varies significantly between livelihood zones. An above-average harvest is likely in the Greenbelt, while below-average crop production is expected in the flood plains livelihood zones.
In Pibor County (Jonglei State), civil insecurity continues to limit access to markets, livestock, and humanitarian assistance. An estimated 100,000 people, or 70 percent of the population, are displaced and face significant food consumption gaps. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity is expected until at least December 2013. During the January to March period, food security is likely to improve to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) levels given expectations for improved humanitarian assistance, and access to game meat and fish.
In Abyei, households will continue to rely on markets and humanitarian assistance to meet basic food needs, and will face Stressed food insecurity throughout the scenario period. The results of the October 2013 referendum are not likely to be recognized by the governments of Sudan and South, though tensions in the areas will likely increase.
As the main harvest continues through February, most households are likely to have Minimal (IPC Phase 1) levels of food insecurity through March. However, food insecurity for households in flood-affected areas of Jonglei, Unity, Lakes and Warrap states is expected to deteriorate from Minimal to Stressed levels from January to March.