Somalia Rain Watch - May 2, 2013
Moderate to heavy Gu 2013 rains continue in most parts of the country
From April 21 to 30, 2013, moderate to heavy rains of over 50 millimeters (mm) were received in most of the Northwest and the Sout, according both to satellite imagery confirmed by the field reports. However, the rainfall was poor in most of Sanaag and Bari Regions as well as parts of Nugal and the central regions (Figure 1). The rainfall estimate (RFE2) for April 21 to 30, 2013 compared to the 1920 to 1980 long term mean (LTM) showed average to above average rains for most parts of the country.
However, most of Bari and Sanaag Region and some parts of central regions received below normal amounts of rain (Figure 2).
In the Northwest, moderate to good rains with average distribution in terms of space and frequency were received between April 21 and 30. However, all pastoral livelihood zones in Sanag Region and the areas of the Nugal Valley between Lasanood and Taleh Districtsin Sool Region received only localized, light showers. In Awdal, Togdheer, and Woqooyi Galbeed regions, wet weather persisted from April 20 to 30; these areas received heavy rains with good distribution. In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed Regions, rains fell which have completely reversed the drought conditions to exceptionally good pasture and water conditions. These same rains further supported crop development in the agropastoral areas and pasture growth, and they fully replenished many water sources. In contrast, in the Northeast, localized light showers were reported in Bari Region, Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Jariban District in Mudug Region, and the Nugal Valley in Garowe District in Nugal Region. Water conditions are average, but poor pasture conditions were reported in these areas.
However, average to good rains were reported in Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones in Nugal and northern Mudug.
These rains reinforced pasture improvement and fully refilled all water sources, including berkads.
In the central regions, most parts of Coastal Deeh Pastoral livelihood zone in Galgadud and southern Mudug and adjacent areas of Addun Pastoral in Hobyo District received localized light showers. However, some parts of Addun and Hawd Pastoral livelihood zones and Central Agropastoral livelihood zone (the cowpea belt) received light to moderate rains. The rain gauge in El Dhere recorded 104 millimeters (mm) from April 21 to 30. Following these rains, cowpea and sorghum crops are developing. Water replenishment and pasture rejuvenation are also continuing.
In the southern agricultural regions of Bay, Bakol, Hiran ,the Shabelles, and parts of Gedo and the Jubas, the Gu rains continued to perform well in late April. In most of these regions, rains were adequate with good distribution across the various livelihood zones, fully recharging water catchments in all agropastoral and pastoral areas and improving pasture and browse conditions.
Planted crops are well established, and they are generally healthy in most agropastoral zones of south. Rain gauges recorded 32.5 mm with five rain days in Dinsor in Bay Region, 83 mm with five rain daysin Huddur in Bakol Region, 37 mm in Jenale in Lower Shabelle Region, and 49 mm in Jalaaqsi in Hiran Region. Exceptions to the trend of moderate to heavy rains were most of Miidle Juba, pockets in Hiran, and pockets in Gedo where rains were less intensive. In Middle Juba, most areas received localized light rains including Sakow, Salagle, and Buale Districts. Similarly, parts of northern Gedo including Lugh, Dolo, Belet Hawa, and Garbaharey Districts also received localized, light showers. In Hiran, parts of the riverine and agropastoral areas had very little Gu rains from April 20 to 30.
The Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) (Figure 3) shows that current vegetation conditions in southern parts of the country are generally above average or within the normal range following recent and earlier rains. The precipitation forecast for May to 10 predicts moderate rain ranging between 30 and 40 mm in most of the South and in the central regions.
Northwestern parts of the country are expected to receive higher amount of rains (40-50mm). However, most of the Golis Pastoral livelihood zone, Karkaar Pastoral livelihood zone, and the Sool Plateau in Bari Region will likely remain dry (Figure 4).