Below average crop production is increasingly likely in southern Somalia

Key messages

In most agropastoral, rainfed areas of the South, food security is expected to deteriorate from July to August due to the anticipated below-average Gu harvest.

Larger than average Gu off-season crop production is expected in September due to the large area replanted in the South between late-May and early June.

Below normal rainfall with long dry spells during May and June in most of Juba, Gedo, Bay, and Bakool regions damaged crops in agropastoral areas of the South. However, July and August Hagaa rain performance may increase the overall size of the Gu off-season crop production in September.
However, this may not fill the grain production shortfall from the poor Gu main season performance.

Due to successive droughts and the failure of the December to February Hays rains for the past two consecutive seasons in Guban pastoral livelihood zone of the Northwest, the food security conditions in the coastal areas are quickly and significantly deteriorating.