Key Messages

• In the most likely scenario, rains in Somalia are expected to be ~60 to 85 percent of average with erratic distribution in both time and space. In the worst case scenario, forecasts suggest there is a 30 percent chance that rains will be ~60 percent of average or below. Gu rainfall will have a significant impact on food secuirity for poor, agropastoral households dependent on rainfed crop production.

• Southern/Central agropastoral and inland rainfed cropping areas of Somalia, including areas still recovering from the 2011 Famine (IPC Phase 5), will experience a deterioration in food security outcomes due to anticipated poor Gu crop production in July and the limited number of saleable livestock over the course of the scenario period.

• Due to increasing debt levels, reduced fishing labor opportunities, a limited number of saleable livestock, overstretched social support networks, relatively poor milk availability, Serious or Critical malnutrition rates, and livestock holdings that are significantly below baseline levels, food security outcomes for poor, pastoral households in the Nugal Valley, Sool Plateau, and Costal Deeh livelihoods of the northeastern and central regions are deteriorating. Poor households are only meeting their basic food needs through loans and gifts to prevent the complete liquidation of remaining assets which could lead to becoming pastoral dropouts.