Key Messages from the FSNWG meeting held May 17, 2012 (FSNWG, 17/05/12)

• The current rains intensified late in the season and have largely been beneficial to most parts of the region.

• However, significant rainfall deficits remain over the eastern horn of the region which is likely to affect crop production in eastern Kenya, southern Somalia and southern Ethiopia.

• According to the 31 st Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF 31) recently convened from 29 th to 30 th May 2012 in Djibouti by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) and partners, there is increased likelihood of near normal to above normal rainfall over western and central areas of the northern sector of the GHA as well as the western and coastal parts of the equatorial sector during the June to August rainfall season. For the rest of the GHA, June to August period is a dry season and these areas are expected to remain generally dry during June to August 2012 (GHACOF 31 statement).

• In South Sudan, the number of severely food insecure people is likely to rapidly increase in the coming months due to the continued border conflicts with Sudan, which has led to trade restrictions and the anticipated influx from Sudan. It is estimated that as many as 4.7 million people could suffer from food insecurity in 2012, with an estimated 1 million people severely food insecure (WFP South Sudan, Situation Report 15, 8 – 14 May 2012).

• A recent upsurge in violence in eastern DRC has caused internal and external displacements. About 30,000 refugees have recently crossed to Uganda and 8,000 to Rwanda.