Highlights

• In June, low river levels are causing concern for irrigated production. Although the level of Shabelle River was sufficiently high to allow gravity irrigation, farmers in Hiran and Upper parts of Middle Shabelle region were using irrigation pumps.
• With the Gu rainy season almost over, light and patchy rainfall occurred in different parts of Somalia during the first dekad of June. With exception of limited areas in Lower Juba and Bari regions, most of Somalia received no rainfall during the second dekad and the third dekad was completely dry, except for light rains in the coastal areas.
• FSAU and FAO Field Monitors completed the 2000 Gu crop establishment assessment in all agricultural regions of southern Somalia. The field reports indicate a good prospect of sorghum and maize production, due to widely distributed rainfall during the first dekad of May, although dry spells and poor crop establishment was observed in pockets of Gedo Bakol and Juba valley. Also, improved security in many agricultural areas of southern Somalia facilitates farming activities and population return.
• In the South, the forecast for a good sorghum production may be curtailed by the anticipated outbreak of Quelea Quelea birds in the entire sorghum belt. Filling all water catchments, the Gu 2000 rainfall created the adequate conditions for the outbreak of the birds.
• In the northwest regions of Somalia, rainfall was concentrated from April to mid May. Early planted maize was severely damaged by lack of moisture and sorghum is in good condition, although in limited acreage.
• Reports from Afmadow mentioned the outbreak of different fatal camel diseases, new to pastoralists. These unknown symptoms affecting 20-30% of the camels are reducing reproduction and production rates - hence, pastoralists' livelihood.
• Evidence of both livelihood loss and serious under-nutrition are increasingly obvious in the South, as a result of recent droughts and structural vulnerability of years of conflict and lack of public services and investments. The weak and slow humanitarian response contributed to displacement and destitutions and higher risks of mortality.
• United Nations relief agencies and partners launched an emergency appeal for US$378 million to address the immediate needs of the 13.3 million people affected by the drought in the Horn of Africa. Besides, the interagency approach aims at supporting efforts to build local capacities to mitigate and prevent similar levels of distress in the future.

The gu Season is Over

Satellite imagery from METEOSAT shows light and patchy rainfall in different parts of Somalia during the first dekad of June. In southern Somalia, rainfall occurred in Lower Juba region. In central and northern Somalia, rainfall occurred in parts of Galgadud, Mudug, Nugal, Sool, Bari, W/Galbeed and Togdheer regions. The rest of Somalia was virtually dry during this dekad. With the exception of limited areas in Lower Juba and Bari regions, most of Somalia received no rainfall during the second dekad of June. Somalia was completely dry during the third dekad of June. Recent reports from the field indicate however, that there were very light rains in the coastal areas of southern Somalia during June. A comparison between the actual and normal rainfall for this time of year shows somewhat more than normal rainfall in parts of Bari, Sool and Nugal regions during the first dekad of June.

In contrast, slightly less than normal rainfall was recorded in the coastal areas of southern Somalia, Sanag and northwestern regions bordering Ethiopia.

Vegetation

According to NDVI satellite images, vegetation during June 2000 was very light to light in southern Somalia. However, when compared to the last two dekads of May, there is less vegetation in southern Somalia. Vegetation remained virtually dry in the rest of Somalia during June. Compared to the historical average, there has been a slight improvement in vegetative conditions in Bakol and parts of Hiran, Bay and Lower Shabelle regions. Patches of grazing lands with slightly more than average vegetation can also be seen in Sool and Togdheer regions.

Low River Levels Cause Concern for Irrigated Production

In June, Shabelle River level was sufficiently high to allow gravity irrigation in many parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle regions. Farmers in Hiran and the upper parts of Middle Shabelle region were however, using irrigation pumps. After it filled almost all dhesheks (Juba valley floodplains), the Juba River level dropped significantly and gave farmers chance to plant their dhesheks crops during June.

Crop Establishment Assessment Indicates Promising gu Production Season

Good Outlook for Cereal Production in Southern Somalia

In June, the FSAU and FAO Field Monitors have jointly completed the 2000 gu crop establishment assessment in all agricultural regions of southern Somalia. The field reports indicate that there is a fairly good prospect of cereal production (sorghum and maize) in this Gu season. The total planted area in this Gu season is estimated at 389,900 Ha, of which 59% sorghum and 41% maize. This area is 23% higher than the cropped area in gu 1999 but similar to the gu 1997.

Main reasons for increased cropped areas include

• Good and widely distributed rainfall in the first dekad of May;
• Cash input from deyr-sesame in Shabelle and Juba valleys;
• More people engage in seasonal farming as an income generating activity;
• Improved security in many agricultural areas of southern Somalia facilitate farming activities and population return;
• Seed aid distribution in many agriculturally important areas; and
• Rehabilitation of irrigation infrastructure in the Shabelle valley.

In fact, crop production can be expanded in Somalia by increasing cultivated land and/or using agricultural inputs.

The total absence of these in Somalia leaves the farmers with the only choice to open new land for crop production. As seen in the table below, in the best case scenario a total of 214,000 MT of maize and sorghum are expected from southern Somalia. This is 17 %higher than the postwar average cereal production (1993-1998). At regional level, cereal production forecast for this gu season is expected to be well above postwar average in Hiran (119%), Bakol (50%), Lower Shabelle (44%) and Bay (24%) regions but just above average in Gedo region (5%).

If these crop forecasts hold up to the end of the cropping season (August 2000), this gu season will be the second best (after 1994) in the postwar period (1993-1998). It is worth noting however, that the relatively high production forecast (compared to the postwar average) for this Gu season is, in absolute terms, small and well below the historical average (1982-1988). On the average, the 2000 Gu production forecast is 38 percent lower than the historical average (1982-1988). At regional level, production forecast is down by 28 to 67 %with the exception of Bakol and Hiran regions -up by 10 and 7%, respectively. Even if the best case forecast will materialize at harvest time, the domestic cereal production will not satisfy the demand -historically, Somalia is a cereal deficit country.

2000 Gu Area (ha) Compared with Previous Seasons

Region	gu 2000	gu 1997		gu 1999
	(ha)	(ha)	diff. (%)	(ha)	diff. (%)
Bakol	21,900	13,200	66%	16,650	32%
Bay	125,500	161,700	-22%	119,000	5%
Gedo	34,550	25,860	34%	25,870	34%
Hiran	23,000	19,580	17%	12,700	81%
Lower Juba	12,950	11,253	15%	12,700	2%
Lower Shabelle	113,300	98,640	15%	89,700	26%
Middle Juba	27,900	23,372	19%	21,200	32%
Middle Shabelle	30,800	40,860	-25%	18,800	64%
Total South	389,900	392,465	-1%	316,620	23%

2000 Gu Production Forecast (MT) Compared with Pre-war and Post-war Averages

Region	gu 2000 Best Case Scenario	gu 1997		gu 1999
		(MT)	diff. (%)	(ha)	diff. (%)
Bakol	6,570	5,968	10%	4,388	50%
Bay	65,400	90,420	-28%	52,674	24%
Gedo	11,530	17,449	-34%	10,965	5%
Hiran	15,200	14,188	7%	6,955	119%
Lower Juba	6,150	18,237	-66%	8,363	-26%
Lower Shabelle	78,770	127,203	-38%	54,540	44%
Middle Juba	12,370	20,332	-39%	13,253	-7%
Middle Shabelle	17,535	53,397	-67%	24,426	-28%
Other Areas	0	0	--	6,390	--
Total South	213,525	347,194	-38%	181,954	17%

Limited Planting in the North West

Rainfall was late and unevenly distributed across the Northwest regions of Somalia. However, some agropastoral areas of Togdheer and Galbeed regions received normal rainfall, concentrated from mid April to mid May. Overall, initial total land planted this gu season was 8,835 Ha, but due to moisture stress, the crop established area is about 2,185 Ha. The planted area is expected to be increased by new planting during the Karan season -a pattern similar to the last three seasons, provided that good and timely rainfall occurs. So far, moisture stress resulted in the loss of most of the early-planted maize. More specifically, below-normal gu crop production is expected in parts of Awdal (Baki), parts of Galbeed and parts of Togdheer (Sheikh, Beer and Hahi), which planted mainly maize. With additional rains, late maize and sorghum have better prospects.

The modest cultivated acreage is attributed to reduced international assistance for tilling, lower availability of animal traction and farmers' previous experiences with climatic changes.

Quelea Quelea Threat in Burhakaba

There is fear of Quelea Quelea birds outbreak in the sorghum belt. The replenishment of water catchments is very conducive for the birds to thrive. Already swarms of these birds were observed in B/Hakaba.

Gu 2000 Seed Distribution-Shortfall In Vulnerable Areas

Under the coordination of FAO, the Seed Working Group of the SACB Food Security Sectoral Committee has appealed for seeds, particularly sorghum seeds for southern Somalia, at the beginning of the gu 2000. After intensive inter-agency discussions, the international donor and NGO communities have responded by providing about 830 MT of the FSAU estimated seed requirements of almost 1,500 MT in the most vulnerable area.

Sorghum Seeds (MT)				Other Seeds Distr. (MT)
Region	Needs (estim.)	Actual Distrib.	% of Coverage	Cowpea	Maize	Sesame	Distributing  Agency
Bakol	346	70	20%	-	-	--	ICRC
Bay	524	422	81%	7	--	--	ICRC, WVI, InterSOS
Gedo	154	111	72%	7	--	--	ICRC, InterSOS
Hiran	54	152	281%	15	53	5	ICRC, ADRA, SCF/UK
Lower Juba	0	0	--		--	--	--
Lower Shabelle	0	37	NA	7		--	ICRC
Middle Juba	68	29	43%	6	23	--	WVI
Middle Shabelle	0	10	NA		--	--	ICRC
Total	1146	831	73%	13	23	5	--

The FAO, together with seed donor/distributing agencies, has drawn the plan for seed distribution in March 2000, coordinated the actual seed distribution and then compiled the data in June 2000, as presented in the table on the following page. The table also shows the seed-distributing agencies and the amount of other seeds distributed in these regions.

The shortfall in sorghum seed supply in Bakol region is mainly attributed to the absence of NGOs and UN agencies on the ground. In contrast, the extra sorghum seed supply in Hiran region is attributed to the presence of many NGOs such as ADRA and SCF (UK) who bought and distributed readily available and viable sorghum seeds. The 2000 Gu campaign of seed distribution is considered to have achieved its objectives.

Gu Season likely to Improve Food Security in most of Somalia, but Food Insecurity Persists in Pockets

FSAU crop establishment statistics indicate that there is a fairly good prospect for aggregate cereal production across southern Somalia in this Gu season. Although the forecast shows that most regions will harvest substantially lower than the pre-war average, predictions for Gu this year are that it will be one of the best in the post war years. However, there are reports of moisture stress in rainfed crops, bird attacks, and conflicts in some of the prime agricultural areas, which may dampen the prospects. Livestock production is generally normal, except for pockets of pasture shortage, low camel reproduction and animal disease problems (see below). The regions most likely to experience livestock problems and below normal crops are Lower Juba, and parts of Gedo, Bakool and northwestern regions.

Earlier, it was feared that the lateness of the Gu rains would push the pastoral and agropastoral populations further into destitution. T he forecast is now better and, in general, the food situation in Somalia is promising. Except for pockets of below normal expectations, most regions may require only little food aid after the harvest and this may give food aid agencies the opportunity to implement proper FFW programs. Nevertheless, until the harvest in late July, these populations will still need assistance. Besides, the regions of Gedo, Lower Juba and Bakool, will need close monitoring even after July.

Unseasonal Livestock Movements Observed

Animals from other parts of Gedo region and Kenya moved to Elwak last Jilal in search of better pasture and water overgrazed Jilal's forage. The newly established pasture is also exhausted, because of little Gu rains. Due to water and pasture problems, both local and immigrated livestock are already moving back towards Bardera and riverine areas. This movement, which is the second in less than six months, is abnormal as it is happening too early in the post Gu period. Considering that the deyr season is still three months away this is worrisome and close monitoring is required.

In Lower Juba region, particularly in the pastoral areas, water shortage has been reported in Afmadow, Jilib and Jamame. Elsewhere in Hagar and Afmadow shortage of fodder for cattle already prompted livestock to move to riverine and dheshek areas, which are infested with Tsetse fly. In some districts like Afmadow, free movements of the livestock for pasture and water was jeopardized by inter-clan tensions. As a consequence, both the animal condition and the situation of food security of the pastoralists will deteriorate. Precautions to tackle further escalation of inter-clan tensions are recommended.

In Sool, there is sufficient pasture for livestock in areas of the region with good browsing and grazing potential. Nonetheless, these areas have experienced less in-migration and are relatively under under-utilized. The situation in Ainabo, also a high potential grazing plain, is different due to disrupted grazing pattern and access to rangeland caused by the proliferation of enclosures and private grazing sites. So far livestock and migration in all other parts of Somalia are normal, except for camel conditions.

Worrying Signs in Camel Reproduction - Alarm in Lower Juba

Camel calving rate in Gedo, Lower Juba, Bakool, central regions and areas of the northwestern regions were reported at 40-50% below the normal rates. Reports from Afmadow mentioned the outbreak of different diseases affecting camels, which are showing mixed symptoms, new to the pastoralists. They are calling these symptoms "Baranwaa", literally meaning " unknown". These combined diseases resulted in deaths of many camels and reduced their calving and conception rates. From El-Nino times, previously unknown diseases have been appearing in many parts of the country. This "Baranwaa" coupled with 'Roor' (astriasis), another disease new to pastoralists, were also observed in central regions and Gedo. These diseases affecting on estimates 20-30% of the camels, with 10% mortality, reduce camel herds, their reproduction and production rates as well as cause an obvious risk to pastoralists' food security.

Terms of Trade Showing Mixed Trends

Due to moderately varying value of livestock in most markets, local goat/sorghum terms of trade are showing a mixed trend during June. Compared to the previous month, goat/sorghum terms of trade decreased by an average of 25 %in Baidoa, Bardera, and Buale markets, while in Kismaio, Mogadishu and Hudur it increased by an average of 78 %. In Baidoa, Bardera and Buale, one local goat could be traded for 53, 13, and 15 kg of sorghum, respectively. However, in Kismaio, Mogadishu and Hudur, one local goat could be traded for 124, 186 and 40 kg of sorghum.

Terms of trade for unskilled labor/sorghum remained stable in most markets. The highest terms of trade were reported in Hagar, where workers received an average of 13 kg of sorghum for 1 day of work, followed by Mogadishu at about 9 kg, and El Berde at about 10 kg. The lowest terms of trade are reported in Bardera at about 3 kg, due to low wages. Milk/sorghum terms of trade improved in most markets. Milk seller in most markets, received at least 1 kg of sorghum for 1 l of camel milk.

Exchange Rates May 1998-June 2000

• Somali Shilling (Hargeisa): US$ 1.00 - SSh 3,150
• Somali Shilling (Mogadishu): US$ 1.00 - SSh 10,275

Local Cereal Prices

Prices of maize and sorghum are seasonally high in most reporting markets, due to short supplies. However, due to food aid distributions, cereal prices stabilized in certain markets. For instance, in Hudur, Bakol region, maize and sorghum prices remained stable at about Ssh 2,000/kg for the last two months, though prices are above normal.

Expectations indicate that the increase of prices will continue up to the harvest period. Overall, prices of maize and sorghum increased between three and five percent during June in most reporting markets, though in some markets prices in June 2000 are closely comparable to the prices in the previous month (May).

However, when compared to the same period of last year, cereal prices are lower, especially maize in the markets of Bardera, Belet Weyne and Kismaio

Livestock Prices

As livestock condition recovered in most parts of Somalia, livestock prices are still below normal and show mixed trends in most markets in June. Reports from Belet Weyne, Baidoa, Bardera and Hudur markets, indicate 15 % decrease in local goat, while Kismaio, Mogadishu and Buale Bardera markets show 20 % increase. In Hudur market, local goat prices decreased by 11 %, from Ssh 90,000 per head in May to Ssh 80,000 in June. Similarly, in Bardera market, local goat prices decreased by 18 %, from Ssh 111,500 per head in May to Ssh 93,500 in June. Low prices of livestock and livestock products, coupled with rising cereal prices, limit the effective demand of herders, who depend on purchased food from local markets. However, major increase of local goat prices occurred in Mogadishu about 50 % and in Kismaio about 57 %.

Imported Food Prices

The prices of imported foods such as sugar, rice and wheat flour, have also increased in most reporting markets, especially markets far from the seaports. For instance in Baidoa market the price of rice increased by 22 percent in June, from Ssh 4,700 per kilogram in May to Ssh 6,000 per kilogram in June. A similar trend was observed in Bardera, Hudur and Buale. Prices were largely stable in Mogadishu, Jowhar and Merca. When comparing to other markets, rice prices are lower in Mogadishu. It is expected that the prices of imported food will increase in the coming months due to high tide sea monsoon.

Food Imports Slow Down as Seasonal Rough Seas Constrain Trade

As the seasonal rough seas set in, the trade slow down was reported in most markets, especially for imported commodities. Normally, from mid June to mid September imports and exports activities slow down. However, prior to the onset of seasonal rough seas, traders import huge quantities of food and build up their stocks. Speculation on food stocks is high in this period of the year and prices increase. The chart compares food imported from Bosasso seaport from January - April 1999 and January - April 2000.

Due to high livestock exports, imported commodities are about three times higher this year.

FSAU/FEWS Bakol Assessment - Food Security still Poor, but Improving

An early warning was issued in September '99 and an alert in January 2000. FSAU/FEWS conducted a rapid assessment in June, in order to look at the impact of the Gu rains and develop an update of food security conditions. While the overall message is positive given good rains, serious concerns remain. The harvest, and therefore increased food supply, was 4-8 weeks away and for many households the rains came too late and assistance has been too small.

Given localised exceptions, the Gu rains were well distributed and of good intensity throughout the region. The result is that water and pasture availability is good and is expected to last until the next rainy season in October. Livestock have returned to the area increasing the availability of milk, for consumption and sale. Good crop emergence was noted in most areas and the forecast for the harvest is positive. Sorghum production is expected to be similar to or above the post-war average - although below the pre-war average.

However, as a result of the extreme weather conditions in the last 2-3 years, as well as insecurity and looting, and increased livestock sales as a coping strategy, livestock levels have been significantly reduced for most households, with many of the poorest households having become destitute. The assessment mission estimated the following numbers of destitute families: Huddur 380; Wajid 200; Elbarde 240; Rabdure 150-200. Food availability is still poor, with no more than 10% of households having any stocks. Local cereal prices are high and above normal, although they have come down by about 20% in the last couple of months due to WFP food aid deliveries.

Terms of trade are still below normal - 1 goat purchasing 40 kg of sorghum, where it would normally purchase 50 kg. This is much improved from before the rains when only 15 kg was purchasable.

Continued food aid is critical for improving nutritional status, maintaining the supply of cereals, keeping their price down and avoiding additional sales of livestock whose numbers are already depleted.

Food aid is most needed in western and northern areas after the large WFP distribution in Hudur. There is also some concern about the location of Food-For Work (FFW) projects. In principle such projects are supported. However, given the recent and current food and nutritional insecurity in the region, the mission felt that there were some areas where FFW would not be appropriate. Water shortages had been (and may again be) a prime cause of human and livestock population movements prior to the rains. In Hudur and El-Berde, a majority of shallow wells are not functioning, although some water interventions are planned by UNICEF and ADRA in Tieglow and El-Berde districts respectively. In addition, IMC and MSF-Belgium are improving the multi-sectoral response with their interventions in health and nutrition.

Depleted Livestock Levels Maintain Vulnerability

Livestock are the main measure of wealth for peoples in Bakol region. Livestock levels have fallen for several seasons in succession due to looting and El Nino related water borne diseases, mainly affecting camels. With the long 2000 Jilal, cattle have also been affected, with significant numbers of deaths being reported. In addition livestock assets have been seriously depleted due to high levels of sales. This has been necessary in order to purchase food to make up for failed crop production in the gu and deyr '99 seasons.

In June, while the remaining livestock are recovering well (although cattle more slowly), due to the recent rains. However indications of serious livestock depletion were noted by the mission. Unusually large numbers of female animals were being sold in the market. Herders explained that the majority of male animals had been sold already. Male animals are generally sold before females, as the latter are vital as breeding stock and for milk production. Older females were appearing on the market and males for breeding were relatively scarce, particularly cattle and camel. The longer-term repercussions are lower conception rates, lower re-stocking rates and lower future milk production. While livestock levels remain low, future vulnerability to 'shocks' remains high.

Early Warning and Response - Lives versus Livelihoods

Most people affected by humanitarian crises survive. The question is, at what cost. Rural households have assets and options, both social and economic, that they can draw upon. These strategies have their limits. Poor households may compromise their own nutritional requirements in the short-term, in order to protect their assets, if they believe this to be an effective strategy to enhance their chances of recovery. Deterioration of nutritional status and famine is usually a long process, affecting poorer or marginalized groups first.

Signals of such developments are reported on, but are often not obvious or dramatic (and therefore not always believed). For example, general signs of malnutrition may not be easily evident until the malnutrition rate is over 30% whereas a 15%+ global malnutrition rate is interpreted as 'critical', demanding immediate and specific responses. In Somalia, evidence of both livelihood loss and serious under-nutrition are increasingly obvious, as a result of recent drought conditions, but also due to the structural vulnerability caused by 10 years of conflict and lack of public services (i.e. health, water, infrastructure).

The above mission to Bakol notes increased destitution and unusual livestock composition as a result of distress sales. In Jeriban district, North Mudug, prolonged drought has, undoubtedly, led to increased destitution (Margaga camp is the evidence). The humanitarian response to both Bakol and Jeriban was late and limited, by any measure. By not concentrating on the timing (early) and the appropriate mix of interventions, (food basket, multi-sector, relief-rehabilitation) the international community turns a blind eye to the dynamics creating destitution, displacement and higher risks of mortality. These processes increase the structural vulnerability of communities, in a country where climatic extremes and therefore 'shocks' are inevitable. The next crisis will be worse than the previous one.

Surveys Confirm Poor Nutritional Status

ACF has undertaken a nutrition survey in the displaced people's camps in Mogadishu. The nutrition status is not good and the mortality rate of young children in recent months is reflective of the appalling conditions in which the tens of thousands of displaced people in the city try to survive.

In the Gedo region, reports from the ACF therapeutic feeding center in Luuq show an overall decrease in the number of beneficiaries but admission of severely malnourished cases continue. An increase in the number of admissions from the El Bon area has been noted. The health and nutritional status of the population in Garbahare and Burdubo continues to be a cause of concern.

The results of a nutrition survey undertaken by World Vision International and UNICEF in Burkhakaba prior to the start of the WVI project there were not available when this report was completed.

UNCU - Concern In The Juba Valley

SACB partners have undertaken limited interventions in Lower and Middle Juba regions in recent years. UNCU's assessment concluded the humanitarian situation is concerning, but not alarming. Vulnerable groups are greatly exposed to the vicissitudes of conflict and nature, and access to essential services is minimal. Displaced persons, returnees and minority groups lack adequate resources to re-establish sustainable livelihoods of which access to water is the most serious factor. Public health care is in urgent demand given the small number of functioning health posts and limited access to the referral hospital in Kismayo. Although the contest for control of Kismayo continues to destabilize the regions, security conditions have improved. Against this background of structural vulnerability, the areas between the river and the Kenyan border received poor rains in this Gu. Most unusual, immediately after the rainy season migration of cattle towards the riverine areas has already begun.

United Nations Issues Emergency Appeal for Horn Of Africa and Somalia

UN relief agencies and partners are making an emergency appeal for US$378 million to address the immediate needs of 13.3 million people affected by the drought in the Horn of Africa - Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Eritrea and Djibouti. Remarkably, this appeal was prepared with international NGOs in order to meet additional needs and for flexible and comprehensive intervention to be successful.

The appeal notes that successive droughts have resulted in the exhaustion of traditional coping mechanisms, leading to increasing vulnerability of populations in already critical conditions. The report recognizes that the recent April/May rains were late and will have little positive impact on harvest. The appeal predicts that the 'full effects of the drought are more severe than was forecast in January and states that additional food resources and interventions in health, water, agriculture and livestock sectors remain critical. This inter-agency approach is an attempt to go beyond saving lives and aims at supporting efforts to build local capacities to mitigate levels of distress and prevent recurrent disasters in the region. In addition, the appeal stresses the need to strengthen coordination and other support services like monitoring, information exchange and early warning systems within the region. For each country the appeal gives a reassessed drought emergency requirement which includes unmet needs against earlier appeals plus additional needs recently identified.

In Somalia, the appeal notes that there are an estimated 750,000 people currently at a critical threshold and in need of international assistance due to a series of stress factors including prolonged drought, asset depletion, high malnutrition rates and abnormal migration. Most of them live in southern and central Somalia. It states that although the April/May rains were certainly beneficial for livestock production, there was real concern about rain-fed agricultural areas and those groups who suffered such a series of shocks that they are unable to profit from the arrival of late rain. The re-assessed drought emergency requirements in the appeal for Somalia are indicated in the pie chart below:

WFP, CARE Pipelines Adequate

WFP has recently reviewed its planned distribution level in Somalia for the coming six months in light of recent program experiences and anticipated needs levels. With a planned level of distribution of 2,000 MT per month, the pipeline is now considered adequate until year-end. Main factors considered include the recent positive reports on the impact of relatively good Gu rains leading to improved grazing and livestock conditions as well as the anticipated harvest in the sorghum belt. WFP is currently endeavoring to limit free food distribution especially in south Somalia and to concentrate instead on developing a viable Food For Work program together with other more targeted interventions such as support for MCH programs and education interventions of other agencies.

With a planned monthly average distribution of 2,400 MT in southern Somalia, CARE's stocks and pipeline are healthy. An increase in the Gedo allocation from 395MT to 650MT/month from June 2000, may affect the pipeline although CARE does not intend to cut down on or cease any FFW programs. It plans to start new FFW programs in districts in Hiran, Middle and Lower Shabelle. Gedo is the only region, which will be receiving exclusively free food distribution. In Bay and Bakool both FFD and FFW programs will be carried out.

WFP, CARE distributions in June 2000

WFP dispatched for distribution some 1,500 MT of cereals, pulses and oil, for both FFW and free distributions. CARE distributed 1,445 MT as FFW in June in Hiran, M. Juba, Lower and M.Shabelle regions. Both agencies could not meet planned distribution targets. Moreover, serious gaps exist at district level. June reports for UNICEF and ICRC have not been received.

Regional Food Security Highlights as Reported By FSAU Field Monitors

Northwest and Awdal

Hagai showers have been experienced in the hawd pastoral and all agropastoral areas. In the agropastoral areas, only cemented water reservoirs hold good amounts of water while most of the earthen dams are either dry or nearly empty. However, there is no concern over drinking water. Pasture is unusually scarce and in agropastoral areas there is severe shortage of feed for lactating cows, draught & pack animals. The distance and magnitude of livestock migrations (some into Ethiopia) seem above normal for both pastoralists and agropastoralists. Agropastoralists continued replanting but extended dry periods and strong Hagai winds will reduce harvested areas and outputs to below normal levels. Late planted crops have better prospects. Quarrying around Borama is an effective source of income. Construction, trade, and transport services continue to be important income sources as well.

Sanag and Togdheer

No rains were received in June and monsoon winds arrived earlier than normal. Pasture and water availability is normal in both regions except in the Hawd area whose pasture is drying up fast. The Hawd is still recovering from consecutive low rains. Livestock condition is normal to below normal. Milk production is low and prices are high. Crop condition is normal to below normal with about 20% failure due to late sowing. Although food availability is normal across the regions, purchasing power is low, especially for poor Hawd pastoralists due to poor goat market. Hawd pastoralists are moving earlier than normal to mountain areas. Construction work is a major source of income. T he murder of a GTZ worker was an isolated case and, it is believed that it may not pose security concern.

North Mudug, Nugal, And Bari

No rainfall was received in June, which is normal. Overall, food security in rural areas is good with good availability of water, pasture and goat milk. Camel milk is unusually scarce, mainly affecting urban milk supply. In the areas of concern in the last Jilaal - east of Semade and Jariban, water availability is normal but pasture and livestock production, especially goat, milk are below normal. Full recovery is not expected until next Deyr. Elsewhere, livestock condition and goat dairy production is normal to above normal. Local communities and Puntland authorities have now managed to reduce severe deforestation by petty milk traders in grazing areas. Livestock demand, prices, and labor opportunities are all low. Nutrition in Mergaga destitute camp is better following food distributions in May by different agencies. Potential/actual insecurity in north-central Mudug is restricting trade and free livestock movement.

Gedo

No rainfall was reported this month. With a few exceptions, pasture and water are in normal conditions and generally accessible. Livestock are healthy, production is normal and milk is cheaply available. Rainfed crops are facing serious moisture stress, greatly reducing prospects for a normal harvest.

Irrigated crops are doing well. Cereal supplies are low and prices are high, thus access to food by poor households and IDPs is poor and worrisome in almost all districts. Juba and Dawa river levels are abnormally low.

Bakol

No rains were received in the region. However, water availability is good. The closure of main roads from Mogadishu to Bay has caused an increase in the prices of imported commodities. Relief food was received in worst hit villages in Hudur and more intervention is expected. Tuberculosis and other respiratory diseases are common.

Sool

The food security situation of the region is improving. The region received good rainfall during the month of May and therefore pasture and water are available. Livestock production/reproduction were gaining to make a positive impact on pastoralists. Livestock export activity is improving. Traders are already assembling the livestock for export. But the operation of the small ports along the Red Sea is minimized by the rough sea period.

Bay

The region received no rains this month, but due to the rains during the previous month, pasture and water availability is good. However, the food security situation is not good as the prices for staple food are very high due to lack of cereal stock at household level. Wild foods are playing an important role in poor households. The prices of imported goods are high due to closure of roads. Besides, the prices of livestock (cattle, goats and sheep) decreased as sales increased (copying mechanism).

Hiran

The region received no rainfall this month, except for light showers in the southern part. Pasture and water availability is above normal in most areas. Livestock production has improved. The price of cereals remained steady, while cowpea and sesame remained expensive. Apart from 30% of irrigated farmers, the rest have no cereal stock and depend on purchases from the market.

Cowpea Belt

The food security situation is nearly normal. Although water availability in the region is decreasing, livestock and pasture condition, apart from some coastal settlements, are normal. Generally, the prices of local and imported commodities are higher than usual.

Juba Valley

Localized light showers were received in June. Crop condition is poor to normal. Many rainfed sorghum areas in Afmadow, Sakow, Bu'aale and Hagar - are experiencing moisture stress. Livestock condition is largely normal except for reports of an unknown fatal disease among camels. Water and pasture availability is normal except in pastoral areas of Afmadow, Jamame and Jilib. Pasture shortage in Hagar and parts of Afmadow is causing cattle migration towards the river and dheshek. Low and highly priced cereal stocks are affecting the riverine and agropastoral poor/middle wealth groups. The food security situation is likely to be worsened by clan hostility and tensions around Dobley and the fear of imminent factional fighting around Kismayo.

Middle Shabelle

Light showers were received in the last dekad. Pasture conditions are normal. The irrigated maize, sesame and rice are doing well. However, as the river level has dropped, gravity irrigation is not possible. Rainfed sorghum is in good condition, whereas rainfed maize shows signs of water stress. Rough seas reducing the number of ships reaching natural ports have led to increased prices of imported commodities.

Lower Shabelle

The rainfall situation in the region is below normal, although Hagai showers started at the end of the month. Water availability is reducing. Animal body weight and milk production have improved. The irrigated crops are in good condition. Rainfed sorghum is in good condition, whereas rainfed maize shows signs of water stress. There are pockets of food insecurity due to flood problems and insecurity in Kurtun Warrey and Qoryoley districts respectively.

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