East Africa Food Security Outlook Update January 2013
Acute food insecurity declines, but parts of region continue to be in crisis
Significant improvements in food security have been noted since the start of harvests in October 2012 in most countries in East Africa. Despite the improvements, an estimated 14.9 million people in Sudan, South Sudan, Somalia, Ethiopia, Kenya, Djibouti, Uganda, Burundi, Tanzania, and Rwanda continue to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity.
October to December rains have been well above normal over surplus-producing cropping areas in Uganda, Rwanda, Burundi, Tanzania, and western Kenya while some localized areas faced significant cumulative rainfall deficits, including parts of the southeastern lowlands, the Northeast, and the southern coastal marginal agricultural areas in Kenya, southern parts of Somali, Oromia, and Southern Nations, Nationalities, and Peoples’ Region (SNNPR) in Ethiopia, neighboring agropastoral areas in southern Somalia, and the northern coastal lowlands in Tanzania.
The October to December short rainy season contributes over 65 percent of total annual production in the southeastern and coastal marginal mixed farming livelihood zones in Kenya. Performance of the October to December 2012 short rains has been below average. The short rains harvest that typically occurs between February and March is expected to be below average. For some areas, this will be the fourth consecutive season of long and short rains harvests that has been below average. Almost one million people are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) levels of food insecurity through March 2013.