East Africa Assumptions for Quarterly Food Security Analysis October 2013
FEWS NET’s Food Security Outlook reports for October 2013 to March 2014 are based on the following regional assumptions:
In the eastern Horn of Africa, the October to December Deyr/Hageya/Vuli/short rains are expected to start late by up to two weeks and to have poor spatial and temporal distribution, especially in October and November. Overall, total rainfall over the course of the season is likely to be average to below average. However, due to uneven distribution, there is a very high likelihood of some areas receiving near average rainfall, especially in southern Ethiopia, though even in these areas, the rains may be unevenly distributed over time and space.
The October to December second season/season A/Vuli/short rains in the western parts of East Africa including the bimodal areas of western Tanzania and most bimodal areas in Uganda, Burundi, and Rwanda, the rains are expected to have a near normal onset in September and October, and rainfall totals are expected to be average to above average over the course of the season. Spatial and temporal distribution is expected to be along near normal patterns in these areas.
The current level of sporadic conflict between Sudan and South Sudan is expected to continue from October to March. No widespread conflict or large-scale displacement or refugee flows are anticipated.