FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Cereal production is estimated to drop by 15 percent in 2011
- Cereal prices are increasing
A reduced crop expected in 2011
The 2011 coarse grains harvest is nearly complete, while harvesting of rice is underway. Following 3 consecutive years of very good crop, a reduced harvest is anticipated this year. Delayed rains and prolonged dry spells have affected 2011 crop production in several parts of the country, notably in the centre and the north.
A joint FAO/CILSS/WFP Crop Assessment Mission which visited the country recently estimated 2011 aggregate cereal production at some 900 000 tonnes,15 percent less than last year’s good harvest but about 4 percent below the average for the previous five years. The important millet crop is expected to decrease by 18 percent to some 668 000 tonnes while the paddy crop is estimated at about 500 000 tonnes, 17 lower than last year. Production of groundnut, the main cash crop, will be down by 27 percent to some 940 000 tonnes.
Cereal Prices on the increase
Reflecting these reduced harvests, prices of locally produced cereals, have increased in recent months in most markets despite the ongoing 2011 crop harvests. For instance, millet prices in Dakar in November 2011 were 21 percent higher than in November 2010. In Kaolack, a major cereal producing area located in the groundnut basin, millet prices in November 2011 were about 60 percent above their levels of a year earlier. Millet prices are likely to stay high, given that its production has decreased and its supply will be limited in the whole western Sahel region during marketing year 2011/12. Although rice price has been mostly stable so far, the impact of rising coarse grain prices on rural vulnerable households’ food security should be monitored closely.