FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Heavy rains in April cause localised flooding

• Earlier, poor rains in February and March affected planting of the 2012 B season crops

• Increased crop production registered in the earlier 2012 A season

• Rice prices continue to strengthen

Heavy rains in April cause localised flooding

Harvesting of the 2012 B season crops is underway and is expected to be completed in July. Poor rains characterised much of the planting period in February and March, resulting in rainfall deficits across most of the country. This was followed by a period of intense rainfall in mid-April causing flooding in some districts in the Northern and Western provinces, affecting an estimated 11 000 people (Rwandan Red Cross Society) and damaging some cropped fields. Although, the full extent of the flood damage on the agricultural sector is not yet known, yields may be negatively affected in areas that experienced excessive rains. However, the heavier rains have also helped reduce the seasonal water deficits in parts.

Overall, production prospects remain uncertain given the generally erratic weather conditions so far in the 2012 B season.

Increased output for 2012 A season

Harvesting of the 2012 A season’s food crops was completed in February 2012. Continued support from the government’s agriculture programme and beneficial rains during the growing season (October-December) supported a larger cereal output, estimated at about 460 000 tonnes, some 13 percent higher compared to the corresponding season in 2011. Maize production increased by 19 percent to over 400 000 tonnes, but wheat production declined by 71 percent, on account of reduced yields and plantings. Sorghum production grew by 58 percent and the rice output increased by 7 percent. Pulses and tuber production also registered increases.

Rice prices continue to increase

In Kigali, monthly prices of rice continued to increase, despite a slight drop in February coinciding with the harvest of the 2012 A season’s crop. In April 2012, at USD 1.25 per kg, rice prices were 62 percent higher than their levels of the previous year. Maize and bean prices have exhibited more stable trends, remaining relatively firm since mid-2011; however, in April prices increased by 2 and 9 percent respectively.

Food security conditions generally stable, but high food prices remain a concern

Food security conditions remain stable owing to the good production in 2011 and early 2012. New supplies from the 2012 B harvest are expected to enable households to replenish food stocks and supplement market supplies. However, the current high market prices are expected to erode households’ purchasing power, particularly impacting vulnerable and low-income households, given their high reliance on markets. On average, market supplies contribute about 52 percent to total annual household food consumption (CFSVA 2009). In addition, irregular rains and localised flooding during the 2012 B season may result in production short-falls, which could limit food availability, negatively impacting on food security conditions in the second half of 2012.