What are the current conditions?

Over the past 24 hours Tropical Storm Bopha (26W) has continued to intensify and is now a Category 2 tropical cyclone with maximum winds averaging 55 knots near the centre.

The system continues to move steadily westwards and modeling is in agreement with this meaning that there is a high degree of confidence in the predicted forecast track.

This morning the centre of TS Bopha was approximately 180 Nautical Miles (NM) or 360 km south of Chuuk Island in the Federated States of Micronesia and about 980 NM east of Koror, Palau.

A Tropical Storm Warning (winds of 39 - 73 mph) remains in effect for the following locations in the Federated States of Micronesia:

Chuuk State: Lukunor, Southern Mortlocks and Puluwat
Yap State: Faraulep ad Satawal

Woleai in the Federated States of Micronesia has also issued a Typhoon Watch, meaning the possibility of damaging winds greater than 73 mph in the next 24 hours.

What are the likely effects caused by Tropical Storm Bopha?

There is still a risk of marginal gales of Chuuk State in the Federated States of Micronesia this afternoon but the risk associated with this is diminishing and rainfall in this area is not expected to be as heavy as previously predicted. Despite this, there will be an increase in winds and rain in Chuuk State over the next 12 to 24 hours.

The greater risk remains with Palau, and to a lesser extent Yap State in the Federated States of Micronesia. The centre of the system is forecast to pass within 100 NM of Koror in Palau close to noon local time on Sunday, 2 December.

At this time, TS Bopha is forecast to intensify into a Category 4 tropical cyclone with winds of storm or possibly even hurricane force affecting parts of the Palau archipelago. It is expected that winds will increase early on Sunday morning as the system approaches.

What countries will be affected?

Countries likely to be affected at this stage are Palau and to a lesser extent the Federated States of Micronesia.