OVERVIEW

• The impact of the monsoon season to date is below normal. Trends projected over the next fortnight indicate a marginal increase in the precipitation pattern.

• While the northern reaches of the country are likely to receive more rain, drought affected areas along the Balochistan coast and in lower Sindh may also experience some rain.

• River flows so far are normal except for the Kabul, Swat and Indus Rivers in upper Punjab, where low to medium flooding has been recorded. Numerous canal breaches in Sindh have caused crop losses and displacements.

• Mid-term forecasts indicate relatively heavier monsoon spells in the second half of August and in early September.

• The possibility of extreme monsoon events cannot be ruled out. Districts vulnerable to flash riverine floods are illustrated overleaf.