Southern Africa Special Report: 2014/15 El Niño Event - July 2014

Report
from Famine Early Warning System Network
Published on 15 Jul 2014 View Original

Potential impacts of an El Niño event in southern Africa are likely to vary significantly

Key Messages

  • According to forecasts provided by the Climate Prediction Center (CPC)-International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), there is an elevated chance for an El Niño event to develop between August and October 2014 and continue through early 2015.
  • Historically, El Niño raises chances of receiving below-average rainfall during the main crop-growing season in southern Africa. However, not all locations are equally affected by El Niño in the region.
  • The most common impact of an El Niño is reduced rainfall during the main December to March crop-growing season in southern Africa. Areas most frequently affected by below-average rainfall are situated along a belt that extends from southern/central Mozambique in the east and stretches westwards to Namibia, as well as the western half of South Africa. Conversely, the northeastern and western parts of the region are more likely to receive above-average rainfall from October to December during an El Niño.