FAO Desert Locust Bulletin No. 369 - 02 Jul 2009
Forecast until mid-August 2009
The locust situation remained serious in the Horn of Africa in early June as small swarms formed in northern Somalia and moved to eastern Ethiopia. Although there had been a high risk of small swarms moving from Yemen and northern Somalia towards the Indo-Pakistan border, this did not occur. By the end of June, a few small swarms dispersed in the highlands of northern Ethiopia, and only scattered adults were reported in northern Somalia and Yemen. Consequently, the situation has improved in all three countries. During the forecast period, there is a moderate risk that scattered adults and perhaps a few small groups of adults from northern Ethiopia may appear in the summer breeding areas in Sudan and Eritrea and breed with the onset of the rains. Elsewhere, small-scale breeding is expected to occur in the summer breeding areas in the Sahel of West Africa and along both sides of the Indo- Pakistan border once seasonal rains commence. Locust numbers are likely to remain low and below threatening levels this summer.
Western Region. The locust situation remained calm during June. Small-scale breeding continued in Morocco near the Algerian border and ground control operations were undertaken. Isolated adults were present near irrigated areas in parts of the central Sahara in Algeria. No locusts were reported in West Africa but unusually heavy rain fell in northern Mauritania and parts of Western Sahara where small-scale breeding could occur. Light rain in parts of southern Mauritania, northern Mali and Niger will allow ecological conditions to improve and small-scale breeding is likely to commence during the forecast period.
Central Region. Several small immature swarms formed in northwest Somalia in early June. Some of the swarms moved into eastern Ethiopia while others moved east across northern Somalia. It was not clear if any swarms reached the Gulf of Aden and crossed to Yemen. A few of the swarms in Ethiopia continued into the northern highlands where they dispersed and were diffi cult to treat. Conditions dried out in the interior of Yemen and only scattered adults remained. Local breeding occurred in a few places along the Nile River in northern Sudan, and a few solitarious adults appeared in the summer breeding areas in Northern Kordofan. No locusts were reported elsewhere in the region. During the forecast period, small-scale breeding is likely in the summer breeding areas in Sudan and western Eritrea, and perhaps in northern Ethiopia. Small-scale breeding may occur in areas of recent rains on the Red Sea coast in Yemen.
Eastern Region. Local breeding continued during June in the interior of southeast Iran and ground teams treated more than 5,000 ha of hoppers. No locusts were reported in Pakistan or India. During the forecast period, small-scale breeding is likely to occur along both sides of the Indo-Pakistan border in areas that receive monsoon rains.