FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT

• Record 2012 wheat harvest is estimated. With sharp increases in cereal production in last five years, imports have steadily declined.

• Livestock numbers have partially recovered but still remain below the pre-2009 natural disaster levels

• Prices of rice and wheat flour have remained stable for several months but overall inflation is almost 15 percent

Record 2012 wheat harvest is estimated

Harvesting of the main season crops, mainly wheat, barley and oats, is just underway and is expected to continue until the end of September.

The total wheat production is officially estimated at a record level of 468 000 tonnes, some 7 percent above the 2011 bumper output, mainly reflecting favourable weather conditions throughout the growing period from April to August 2012 across most of the country.

The country experiences an increase in wheat production for the fifth consecutive year (since 2008) during these years of high economic growth. Consequently, the cereal imports have declined in last five years.

Wheat and rice are the two major cereals imported, mainly from China and Russia. Given the relatively favourable production estimates, the total cereal imports for the 2012/13 marketing year (October/September) are forecast to stabilize at about 126 000 tonnes.

Livestock numbers have partially recovered but still remain below the pre-2009 natural disaster levels

The total livestock and breeding animal numbers have recovered since the Dzud in 2009/10 but are still below the pre-disaster levels. At the end of 2011, the total number of animals was 36.3 million down from 44.0 million at the end of 2009. Similarly, breeding stock heads are currently estimated at 13.1 million down by 2.2 million from 2009. The livelihood and food security of the affected half a million rural people because the 2009/10 Dzud are slowly being restored.

Prices of rice and wheat flour have remained stable for several months but the overall inflation is almost 15 percent

The year-on-year consumer price inflation (CPI) in August 2012 was estimated at 14.9 percent. However, the price for wheat flour, the main food staple in the country, has remained relatively stable since November 2011 and in August 2012 it was some 3 percent below the same month last year. The country imports about one-third of its annual wheat consumption requirements.

Similarly, prices of rice show comparatively stable trends in recent months.

Bread prices, generally subsidized in the capital city Ulaanbaatar, are more stable and below the wheat flour prices.

In August 2012, prices for beef and mutton were slightly lower than the month before but nonetheless remained 65 and 69 percent higher, respectively, than a year earlier, due to decreased supply following the exceptional livestock losses from the Dzud in 2010 and rise in demand during this economic growth period. The prices in Ulaanbaatar capital city market follow the usual seasonal lows during October-December and highs during May-July.