Mauritania : Food Security Outlook - July through December 2012
The onset of the growing season in July in southern rainfed farming areas (livelihood zone 6) is enhancing the effects of assistance programs. Food insecurity levels should decrease between July and September if current assistance levels are sustained. Food security among pastoral-dominant populations in agropastoral areas (livelihood zone 5) is still unstable, with livestock assistance programs falling short of needs.
The earlier than usual onset of seasonal rains has already enabled a generally normal startup of agricultural activities. The government has launched a national production plan focused on inputs and the establishment of new irrigation schemes which would lead to the development of cereal cropping areas at least equal to normal year levels.
Terms of trade will remain unfavorable to pastoralists in western agropastoral areas through the middle of August. However, improvements in pastoral conditions in rainfed cropping areas have already helped livestock prices rebound. This trend should gain momentum between September and December with the holiday demand, creating favorable terms of trade for pastoralists.
An average or slightly below-average growing season, income from revitalized farming activities, output from pastoral activities invigorated by new pasture growth, the extension of assistance programs, and the stabilization of cereal prices should are expected to result in general food security improvements as of October, where very poor and poor households should be in either IPC Phase 2 (stressed) or IPC Phase 1 (minimal acute food insecurity). The steady influx of Malian refugees in the southeast could keep host households at crisis levels without the continuation of adequate assistance programs.