Food Security Outlook - January through June 2013
The resumption of fighting affects food security
The resumption of fighting in the north is heightening food insecurity, particularly in areas dependent on the market systems disrupted by insecurity. Continued uncertainty over future developments in the rapidly changing and dynamic situation makes it difficult to project the most likely future direction of the conflict. Thus, the following analysis assumes a continuation of the current situation and will be updated as new data is made availabl
Following an outbreak of new conflict in northern Mali, the closure of the Algerian border and the rupture of the Mopti-Timbuktu-Gao trade corridor pose immediate constraints to the regular flow of food supplies, particularly in the Gao and Kidal regions. The absence and/or restricted access of traders to these markets could rapidly erode food security, particularly for pastoralists in these areas who are completely dependent on the market to meet their food needs.
Food insecurity levels in northern agropastoral areas will reach IPC Phase 2: Stress earlier than expected, by February instead of March, with the socio-economic problems created by the new outbreak of fighting and restrictions on the free circulation of people and goods.
The normalization of food security drivers in the south is helping to maintain IPC Phase 1 (minimal food insecurity) in this part of the country.
Based on currently available information, and assuming that market disruptions and constraints to humanitarian assistance delivery persist, IPC Phase 3 (crisis) is expected by the beginning of April in pastoral areas due to the shut down of key markets, restrictions on the movement of people and goods, and the beginning of the lean season.
Preliminary estimates put nationwide crop production at more than 20 percent above the five-year average, which is improving overall cereal availability. However, the approximate 60 percent decline in average output in livelihood zones 3 (Fluvial rice and transhumant livestock rearing) and zone 6 (the Niger River Delta area of Djenné) will prolong the lean season in these areas, quickly propelling them into IPC Phase 2, particularly in the case of the municipalities of Gourma Rharous, Bourem, and Gao.