Southern Africa Food Security Outlook Update July 2012
Significant food price reductions contribute to stable food security conditions
As projected in the June Outlook, generally favorable food security conditions are expected to prevail throughout the region from July to September 2012. Main harvests have increased the availability of staple foods at the household level and in local markets. As food prices continue to drop in line with season patterns, food access has improved for most market-dependent households.
Significant price reductions have been observed in the majority of markets as food availability continues to improve. It is expected that staple food prices will continue to decrease until the end of the harvest period in August. Market and on-farm supplies are expected to remain stable across the region due to average and above average cereal production and modest carryover stocks from last year. However, increased costs associated with transportation, agricultural inputs and rising inflation levels in the region may result in anomalous price increases in some countries as the lean season approaches in October/November.
Parts of the region that experienced crop production shocks are currently facing food insecurity conditions. Food insecurity severity ranges from Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of southern Malawi, to Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in other parts of southern Malawi, central and southern Mozambique, and southern Zimbabwe. Other affected areas (where conditions are estimated at IPC Phase 2) include parts of both Lesotho and Angola. Very poor and poor households in these areas are struggling to meet their food requirements as current food price levels remain well above the five year average for this time of year. A regional forum for the dissemination of national vulnerability analysis results will take place in mid-July and will provide more detailed information that will assist decision-makers in determining the level of support required over the 2012/13 consumption period.