Malawi Food Security Outlook July to December 2013
Poor crop production in localized areas and high food prices likely to result in food security Crisis
• Official third round crop estimates released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MoAFS) have projected a national maize production estimate of 3.64 million MTs, comprised of 3.09 million MTs of rain-fed gross maize production and 551,000 MTs from anticipated irrigated gross maize production. Based on the above projections a maize surplus production of 194,000 MTs is expected. However, reduced irrigated harvests look likely and could resultin a lower surplusif any.
• Household food security in localized areas in the southern, central, and northern region will likely begin to deteriorate from July to September as a result of low crop yields due to dry spells. It is expected that poor rural households in these areas will begin to deplete their food stocks and incomes from crop sales, resulting in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes in some districts in Southern Lakeshore (SLA), Kasungu Lilongwe Plains (KAS), Lower Shire (LSH), Northern Karonga (NKA) Mzimba Self Sufficient (MZS), Middle Shire (MSH), Lake Chilwa-Phalombe (PHA), Rift Valley Escarpment (RFT), and Western Rumphi and Mzimba (WRM) livelihood zones during this period.
• The food security situation is likely going to get worse in these highlighted areas as household stocks run out and staple food prices rise resulting in consumption deficits between October and December. Poor households are likely going to experience food consumption deficits in some districts in KAS, PHA, LSH, NKA, MZS, MSH, LSH, RFT, and SLA livelihood zones during this period.
• Maize prices were generally stable between May and June, but on average 249 percent above last year’s prices and 169 percent above the five-year average. These higher than normal prices are due to the lingering effects of last year’s localized production shocks, macro-economic instability, and high demand despite recent harvests. Given these factors FEWS NET projects that between July and December maize prices will increase.