Kenya Food Security Outlook Update, December 2016

Crisis food security outcomes likely to increase due to below-average short rains

KEY MESSAGES

  • Significantly below-average short rains have led to poor crop and livestock conditions in southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas. The resulting loss of income and food from household production, and reduced on-farm labor opportunities, are likely to exacerbate household food insecurity and lead to an atypical intensification of coping mechanisms to support food consumption.
    While most poor households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May 2017, localized households, especially in parts of Kilifi, are likely to move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

  • Despite enhanced rainfall in late November/early December, substantial seasonal deficits remain in most pastoral areas. Livestock productivity and household incomes continue to be atypically low, resulting in reduced household food access and consumption. Most pastoral households remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), except in parts of Marsabit, Mandera, Tana River, Garissa, and Samburu where some households are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity, with the expectation for additional households to move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) between January and April 2017.

  • As rainfall deficits continue even in western parts of the country, long rains crop production is expected to be up to 10 percent below average. However, food security in the medium and high-producing areas is expected to remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through May 2017.