Kenya Food Security Outlook Update, April 2017

Marginal improvements impeded by delayed and significantly poor long rains

KEY MESSAGES

  • Acute food insecurity is expected to worsen in pastoral areas, as poorer-than-anticipated long rains have impeded typical livestock productivity recovery. Access to milk and income remain limited. Low household purchasing power is leading to growing food consumption gaps, with the likelihood of more households moving into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in Turkana, Marsabit, Garissa, Samburu, Isiolo, Mandera,
    Wajir, Tana River, Baringo, Laikipia, and West Pokot. Poor households in northern parts of Marsabit and Turkana could possibly face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes, and more so than previously projected, especially during the June – September period.

  • In the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, typical on-farm income-earning opportunities are severely limited since land preparation and planting have been disrupted due to the poor rainfall.

There is also a lack of harvested short rains crops usually available for sale and consumption. FEWS NET expects more Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, between June – September, among poor households in coastal areas, as well as localized households in southeast areas, which are experiencing significant rainfall shortfalls.

  • The outbreak of Fall Armyworm in parts of the high and medium potential areas and the coastal marginal agricultural areas, coupled with the poor long rains, have the potential to cause significantly below-average long rains crop production.

  • Continued multi-stakeholder humanitarian interventions, at both the national and county-level, across various parts of the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, continues to mitigate the severity of acute food insecurity outcomes. However, FEWS NET has not incorporated these interventions into our analysis since there is still a lack of clarity on planned and funded humanitarian assistance in terms of location, scale, coverage, beneficiaries, and duration