Kenya Food Security Outlook, June 2017 to January 2018
- Following significantly below-average March to May long rains across the majority of Kenya’s pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, large areas of the country are experiencing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes and atypically high food assistance needs, projected to continue until at least November when the short rains season is well underway. Humanitarian assistance is ongoing in various parts of Kenya, with the scale of assistance mitigating the severity of outcomes in parts of Turkana with poor households in Stressed! (IPC Phase 2).
- In pastoral areas, partial regeneration of rangeland is expected to lead to an atypically early lean season in July. Below-average livestock productivity has kept milk production and livestock sales at low levels, limiting household income and food access due to high staple food prices. Poor households in many pastoral areas are likely to continue to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through January 2018. However, some localized poor households could experience worse outcomes through October in the absence of emergency food assistance.
- Below-average maize production in both the high and medium-producing areas as well as the marginal agricultural areas due to below-normal rainfall and the effects of Fall Armyworm is expected. This is likely to keep staple food prices high, which are 17 – 49 percent above five-year averages in the major urban consumption markets, constraining household purchasing power. Despite the Government of Kenya’s subsidies on maize flour and maize imports, prices are expected to remain high through January 2018.
- In southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas, crop production activities, while at below-average levels, continue to provide some income-earning opportunities, facilitating needed market purchases. The below-average long rains harvest in July is expected to provide a temporary reprieve from market dependence, but by August, supplies will be depleted and drive more poor households into Crisis (IPC Phase 3), particularly in northern Kitui and Kilifi.