Kenya Food Security Outlook, February to September 2017
According to the January 2017 Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG) short rains assessment, which included FEWS NET, large areas of the country are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes and atypical high food assistance needs, mainly in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas, following the poor October – December 2016 rainy season.
An atypical deterioration of acute food insecurity is expected in the majority of pastoral areas, including northwestern, northeastern, northern, and southeastern regions between February and April, with many poor households likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes.
There is also the possibility that some localized poor households in parts of Marsabit, Turkana, Samburu, and Garissa could experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes in the absence of emergency food assistance, especially during the February to April and July to September periods.
Additionally, while many northern pastoral areas of Kenya have frequently experienced “Critical” levels of acute malnutrition in recent years, the “Critical” and “Extremely Critical” levels of acute malnutrition currently observed in northern areas are very important to note for response purposes.
Coastal and southeastern marginal agricultural areas are also expected to experience an atypical decline in food security due to the significantly below-average short rains crop production, depleted food stocks, and reduced on-farm casual labor opportunities. Some households in parts of Kilifi and Lamu are projected to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity outcomes through April, and between July and September, while the other marginal agricultural areas will likely remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September.