Joint Government – Humanitarian Partners National Flood Contingency Plan 2016 kiremt
The NDRMC-led Flood Task Force (FTF) prepared this revised Flood Contingency Plan in order to mitigate the adverse impacts of anticipated floods in the kiremt (June to September) season. The Contingency Plan (CP) will also serve as a tool to mobilize resources to respond to priority needs in relevant sectors. The CP identifies the most likely scenario based on the weather forecast and analysis of the preparedness and response capacity of at-risk or affected communities. The NMA forecast for kiremt, which formed the basis for the development of the Alert documents and CPs, warns that flooding is anticipated in many areas including the northern, western, northwestern, southwestern, northeastern, and central parts of the country. This CP provides flood-related requirements by sector for the kiremt season, including other mitigation and preparedness measures.
The multi-agency Flood Task Force issued two Flood Alerts in April and June 2016 and a Contingency Plan in May 2016 to raise awareness of anticipated flood risk in flash and river flood prone areas in the country. During the months of March and May, floods resulted in loss of lives, livelihoods and infrastructure in Amhara, Somali, Afar, Oromia, SNNP and Hareri Region and Dire Dawa Administrative Council. The revised Flood Alert that was issued in June 2016 indicated that floods during belg season (March to May) caused devastating impacts on lives and livelihoods of communities in Oromia, Somali, and SNNP, Afar, Amhara,
Tigray, Dire Dawa, and Harari regions. Furthermore, the floods caused significant damage on cropped lands, schools and health facilities. The flood incidence caused displacement of over 195,000 people in flash and river flood prone areas.
1.2 La Niña
According to the NMA weather outlook for the 2016 kiremt season, enhanced La Niña event is anticipated where most of the kiremt benefiting areas of the country are likely to have significant rainfall activity. Pronounced impact of La Niña is anticipated in the peak months of July and August also noting that the belg (March to May) rains already caused soil saturation in many areas. Similarly, the probabilities of flash and river floods will likely increase in the peak months (July and August) following intensified La Niña situations.
1.3 Forecast for kiremt 2016
The NMA identified the years 1998 and 1983 as the best analogue years. The outlook indicates that the season (June to September 2016) will be characterized by the following phenomenon.
The onset and cessation of the seasonal rain is expected to follow normal patterns.
Above-normal rainfall is anticipated to dominate across the Northern, North-Western and North-Eastern parts of the country, with occasional heavy falls at different places.
Western and South-Western Ethiopia are anticipated to have normal to above-normal rainfall activity.
Many places of Central and Eastern Ethiopia including southern highlands are expected to receive normal tending to above-normal rainfall activity.
1.4 NMA forecast for July 2016
The National Meteorology Agency (NMA) forecasts that in July, the kiremt rain bearing weather systems will strengthen over the western, central, eastern and northeastern parts of the country. Consequently, normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in the western, central and northeastern parts including East and West Wollega, Jimma, Illu Ababora, West Shewa, East Shewa and North Shewa, Arsi and Bale zones in Oromia region; most zones in Gambella region; East and West Gojjam, Bahir Dar Zuria, North and South Gonder zones in Amhara region; parts of Benishangul Gumuz region; most zones of Tigray region; and Hadiya, Gurage, Keffa, Bench Maji, Wolayita, and Sidama zones in SNNP region. Additionally, heavy falls in parts of the above-mentioned areas will likely cause flash floods. In the same manner, North Wollo, South Wollo, and North Shewa zones in Amhara region; East and West Hararghe zones in Oromia region; Fafan and Sitti zones in Somali region; Zones 1, 3, 4, and 5 in Afar region; parts of Dire Dawa and Harari; South Omo and most of Segen Peoples zones in SNNP region will receive normal rainfall with occasional above-normal rainfall performance.